Melbourne vs Sydney - MCG - Sunday
Melbourne - 11th - 5-10-1 - 88.84%
Sydney - 6th - 9-7 - 111.28%
Melbourne and Sydney at the MCG on Sunday is one of the more intriguing games of the round.
The Swans can still finish top four, but first of all must shore up a spot in the eight, whilst the Dees can still win the wooden spoon if they stumble in the last six weeks.
However in isolation there doesn't appear to be an enormous chasm between the two sides. Experience and consistency being the notable factors.
Last week's loss to Fremantle pretty much summed up Melbourne's season. Dissapointing start, excellent recovery, but ultimately just not quite there.
So many games have played out that way for the Demons this year and last Sunday was another game they had chances to win had they been able to maintain composure.
Sydney are a side that rarely drops it's guard and opens the door, so the Dees cannot afford any slow starts this week.
Melbourne have led at quarter time just once since Round 9 and have trailed by an average of 21 points at quarter time over that period.
The Dees have only lost six second halves this year which demonstrates that they are leaving themselves too much to do after their poor starts.
Sydney, with the exception of three weeks ago against Richmond, are possibly the hardest club to overhaul when you concede a deficit as they are the masters of controlling the tempo of a game.
They also appear to have regained their mojo a bit, and are starting to get a settled line up so it will be a tough day for the exciting, yet inconsistent Melbourne side.
The Swans defensively are still missing Bolton and Lew Bob Tom, but Grundy, Mattner, Malceski, Shaw and Richards still provide a good solid mix in defence against the small-medium Melbourne forward line with Bate, Green, Watts and Jurrah.
Grundy will take Watts, Richards should get Green and Mattner might get first dibs on Bate.
Liam Jurrah is still a difficult match up and his form has been encouraging in his first two games back.
Sydney's forward line is a touch unconvential as well relying on a lot of midfield goals, on top of contributions from McGlynn and O'Keefe.
Adam Goodes return to the midfield a fortnight ago has been huge with his form returning to it's very best.
Moloney normally gets the lock down roles for Melbourne, but he won't have the height to go with Goodes in the air when he pushes forward. Maybe a Cale Morton could perhaps be an option given he played a good game last week and reads the play quite well.
Kirk, Bolton, Kennedy and McVeigh have the big bodies in the middle to work over Melbourne, who are still missing James McDonald.
The Dees are the worst centre bounce team in the comp averaging a clearance just 39% of the time.
You can't afford to relinquish posession easily against the Swans because it allows them to play the game on their own terms.
Melbourne rely on fast breaks, run and spread and procise forward entries. They only go Inside the arc about 46 times a game which is the worst in the AFL, but they have a high efficiency once inside.
Sydney are the opposite. They rely on patient build ups, strong zoning structures and an attacking half back line led by Malceski, Kennelly and Shaw.
These are their pull the trigger players. Sydney play on less then any other side in the comp, and will only go when the ball is in the hands of the right players, and the moment is right.
Sydney's style should frustrate the Demons who won't be able to generate enough run through the middle to punch through Sydney's defence given the pressure and zoning Sydney apply through the middle.
Expect a grinding affair for much of the afternoon, without a heap of goals kicked. But Sydney are on the way to another september campaign in Paul Roos's swansong and they will have enough in the bank to confine the Dees to their 11th loss of the season.
Sydney by 21 points.
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