North Melbourne vs Essendon - Etihad - Saturday Night
North Melbourne - 9th - 8-8 - 85.15%
Essendon - 12th - 5-11- 83.60%
Etihad Stadium on Saturday Night will play host to a couple of teams who are experiencing contrasting seasons.
North Melbourne have to be admired for their efforts this season under a new coach, and they are a very real chance of tasting finals action in Brad Scott's first year.
The Bombers on the other hand are under enormous pressure.
Having played finals in 2009, this year has been a major dissapointment with six straight losses seeing them fall out of contention for September action and increasing speculation on the future of coach Matthew Knights.
Last week's loss to Wooden Spoon favourite West coast was the absolute low point on the season and whilst I believe Matthew Knights is safe at least until the end of this year, they would want to turn things around pretty quickly.
Even if just to fight off the masses for a while and ease some pressure on the proud club from Windy Hill.
David Hille's absence has been particularly telling, it has put pressure on Ryder and Bellchambers to carry the mantle in the ruck and they sorely miss his physicality and smarts around the ground at present.
No Pears, and interrupted seasons to Hooker, Fletcher and Slattery has put pressure on their already fragile defence and that has never been more evident then last week when Lecras went berserk.
Essendon's pressure skills have slipped as well, they were tackling very well Rounds 5-10 when they took the scalps of Hawthorn, St.Kilda and the Bulldogs, but have dropped away a bit since then.
This is evident by the fact that they are not forcing errors from teams.
Essendon are last for marks from opposition kicks, and also concede the second highest number of marks inside fifty in the AFL over the course of the season.
It confirms the theory that when at their worst, they can get opened up like a tin can without too many problems.
When confidence is low, you need to start well, and Essendon hasn't won a first quarter since Round 9.
They will need a solid start against the Kangaroos so their crowd can get involved and the confidence of the group can grow.
For the Kangaroos this game is a must win, 8-8 with a poor percentage so they need to win more games then Adelaide and Carlton to play finals.
If all parties finish on the same wins, the roos miss out, and this is another super important game.
The run home is tricky, but not horrible for the Kangaroos but this is one of those good old fashioned danger games that would make fans a touch nervous.
You never want to play a team that's under seige having experienced another week under the microscope, so the Kangaroos need to be wary.
Lindsay Thomas is still a couple of weeks away but the Kangaroos are demonstrating their depth of talent this year with several blokes missing a fair bit of footy through injury, and some kids stepping up into the fold.
Last week's performance was very efficient and professional by the Kangaroos who controlled the game from the get go against an in form Tigers outfit, and it demonstrates that this North side can do everything pretty well.
The key is developing some real class over the coming years, and it's hard not to see these Roos factoring prominently in the finals over the next few seasons.
Bastinac, Cunnington, Anthony (injured), Adams, Goldstein (ruck), Garlett, Ziebell and co representing a very talented future midfield group.
Their defence is well organised and efficient and their attack is starting to settle down.
They are vulnerable against the real quality teams, but that will change as their development advances over time.
If your a North Melbourne supporter, you should be reasonably pleased with what might be in store.
North Melbourne are the number one team this year for scoring from set shots, averaging 56% of their weekly score from marks or free kicks. They are also number three in the AFL for marks inside fifty so if you look at Essendon's stat on conceding marks in their defensive arc, it could be a problem for the red and black boys.
Six of the Kangaroos eight victories this seaon have come at the venue and they should make it seven on saturday night.
Lachy Hansen's mobility in attack could pose headaches as well for Essendon, with Fletcher likely to get him.
But I can see the likes of Edwards and Warren being difficult match ups for them, and they will test the defensive running of Essendon's midfielders with their spread of goals from onballers as well.
Clearance wise these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Roos have at this stage, the more in form running outside players and therefore should create more chances then Essendon.
Watson and Stanton have far too much responsibility, but they don't hurt you as much as others with their posessions.
Winderlich is the man who will probably draw a tag for the Bombers as he is in some of the best form of his career amongst all the doom and gloom for Essendon.
But this is the Kangaroos 9th win of the season, whilst it won't be easy, and they will need to beware the wounded opponent, they should have a little too much run and depth at present to drop a game of such high importance and their bold march to September will still be well and truelly alive come 10pm Saturday Night.
North Melbourne by 16 points.
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