Westcoast vs Cartlon - Subiaco - Saturday Night
Westcoast -16th-4-12-78.55%
Carlton - 8th - 8-8 - 104.51%
Carlton's season is on the line this Saturday night when they travel to Perth to take on a Westcoast side who's last fortnight has been a vast improvement on what they have dished up for much of the year.
The Eagles had a close loss to the in form Crows, and then belted Essendon last week at Etihad to register their second win in Melbourne for the year.
Westcoast are now back in the hunt to avoid a first ever wooden spoon and will in all likelihood get off the bottom of the ladder this weekend if they can defeat the Blues.
Carlton have lost four of their past five, and the heat has been turned up on their squad, as well as coach Brett Ratten.
If they lose this one, rightly or wrongly, expect the scrutiny on Ratten to increase next week.
Carlton's midfield group has fallen away badly, with Marc Murphy not enjoying anywhere near the season he had last year, Bryce Gibbs struggling for consistency, Kade Simpson in a slight trough and Chris Judd having to shoulder much of the load.
A lot of people have questioned Judd's standing amongst the games top ten in recent weeks, and whilst I agree he has lost a bit of penetration in his kicking, he still breaks the lines, provides the crucial clearance work and creates the play like few others.
I would take him amongst the first picked in my side anyday and he is the least of their concerns.
The problem is support, he needs a bit of grunt work to help clear a path, and Brock Mclean was earmarked as that man late last year.
However injuries have affected him greatly and he hasn't been able to provide that protector role that the Blues were so eager for him to fill.
Richard Hadley is another who hasn't come on to fill that role.
At the start of the year, we were lauding the club's ruck stocks, but the loss of Kreuzer has hit them hard.
Jacobs is a second stringer playing as a first stringer, and Hampson is still pretty raw even if he looks promising.
Expect Warnock to get a reprieve this week, to mix things up a bit.
Eddie Betts has done his job in attack this year, but Yarran and Garlett as well as Eddie rely on a food supply like most small forwards and that has been dried up of late.
Setanta O'Hailpin who started the season so brightly found himself dropped last week, and Lachie Henderson isn't quite ready to fill the void in attack consistently.
The Blues have scored goals from just 17% of Inside fifties in the last month, ranked last in the competition.
In defence I think they are ok. Bower and Jamison are good young players, Armfield and Russell are both solid contributors, but Thornton remains a mystery, he has been dropped twice this year now and needs to assess where he wants to go from here.
One major problem for their defence is that a lack of midfield pressure is leaving it under the pump far to often.
If the opposition is allowed easy ball inside fifty, it doesn't matter who is down there, you will have some problems.
The Blues are conceding goals from 32% of opposition Inside Fifties in the last three weeks, the worst record in the competition as well.
For the Eagles pressure is the key. The Blues are turning the ball over more then they have all year at present, and teams have been putting the blowtorch on their midfield group.
Westcoast forced enough turnovers from Essendon to rip them apart last week, and it was their best defensive effort of the season in terms of forcing turnovers, and then scoring from them.
Sydney defeated Carlton in much the same way last week so the Eagles will no doubt have watched that.
Being a big ground, it is very important not to butcher the footy as you will be carved up in space.
Mark Lecras should get Andrew Walker as his opponent given Walker has shut down Steve Johnson already this year, Russell and Armfield will be options two and three for the inform Eagles star.
Priddis, Shepherd, Rosa, Masten, Ebert and Embley all generated plenty of drive for the Eagles last week and they are in better form right now then their Carlton counterparts.
Dean Cox showed pleasing signs given his indifferent form, and Natanui played his role superbly.
Down back they have their concerns the Eagles, but I'm not sure Carlton are in good enough form to exploit that.
Kennedy will be keen to show his old side his value and I can guarantee the Blues could do with him right now.
Expect a big game from the man with the worst kicking action in history (yet one of the most effective).
Pound for pound, Carlton are a better side then the Eagles, but on form right now they just aren't doing enough for me to be able to tip them with any confidence. The Eagles at Subiaco are about a six goal better side and they tick more boxes in this contest.
The Blues forward line is really struggling, and the pressure through the midfield is letting them down badly.
The Eagles have a sniff of confidence at present and will compound the Blues woes and deliver a savage blow to their finals chances in the process.
Westcoast by 9 points.
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