Geelong vs Brisbane - Skilled Stadium - Saturday
Geelong 2nd -12-4 - 142.73%
Brisbane 13th -5-11- 81.60%
As I sit and write this report it is very difficult to get excited by a contest that has the potential to be one of the more lopsided in recent times.
The Brisbane Lions in essence are not the worst team in the competition, but in the reality of what is happening in front of us, you could mount a fair argument that they are.
The Cats are coming off a loss and will be stinging, have won 21 in a row at Skilled Stadium, have not lost in Victoria to the Lions in six years and welcome back Darren Milburn and Steve Johnson.
The recipe is not good for this one that is for sure.
The Brisbane Lions need to treat this as the start of a new beginning, a six week launching pad into 2011.
The season has been a disaster for the Lions, with a spate of injuries, a lack of confidence and a realisation of some key deficiencies that have derailed them after starting 4-0 in the first month.
Simon Black is likely to miss this week again, and there are several others out still, but the intensity last week was not acceptable.
You can be undermanned, you can be down on form, both of those are fine, but you must compete and fight hard regardless of the circumstances, and the Lions were uncompetitive last week against the Hawks.
The lowest ever recorded number of Inside 50's, 150 less disposals and just eight shots at goal for the game is the epitomy of rock bottom.
Thankfully there is only one way you go from here and that is up, and the Lions leadership group made the right statement this week by standing by Michael Voss and putting their hands up to cop some blame.
Expect a spirited showing this week from the team, but sadly that's about all they can hope for.
Sherman needs a lift, so does Mitch Clark, Luke Power seems to be approaching the finishing line and they simply do not have enough options outside of Brown and Fev.
They have a heavy reliance on those two to kick 70% of their score each week and you simply cannot compete with the best without some support and spread in attack.
Sherman has been a goal kicker but is struggling, Buchanan hasn't offered much, and the midfield goals have dried up.
Aaron Cornelius is a bloke who must surely come back in, his form had been very solid and yes he's another tall but the kid is lively, he attacks the footy hard and has good hands, they need to start blooding him.
Rockliff, Redden, Polkinghorne and co are developing well and this is where the positive lies for them going forward. The more exposure and education these blokes get can serve the club well for 2011.
When Adcock, Drummond and co return the Lions would feel with a solid pre season that they could perhaps push for the eight next year, provided they can find one or two more paths to goal.
For Geelong, last week's loss was probably coming for a while. They had lost the contested posession count in four of their previous five matches and their disposal efficiency has dropped.
Credit to the crows certainly, but when you throw in the dramas with the club doctor, and what Adelaide had on the line they were there for the taking.
This week however they return to a venue where they have won 21 straight matches. They will get a couple more players back and continue to fine tune themselves for September.
The cats have won the Inside Fifty count in 20 of those 21 matches, and the Lions are the worst team in the comp at present in restricting marks iside fifty.
Given Geelong's delivery, it could get messy if the Lions don't apply pressure through the middle.
Last time these teams met was at the Gabba and the Cats had 118 more disposals, and a 14% higher efficiceny. They also won the game by 81 points.
The Lions have been last for pressure skills, disposal efficiency, and restricting opposition forward entries in the last month and that could prove to be a lethal mix on Saturday.
Maguire may get a crack at Podsiadly with Merrett to take Mooney. Stevie J, Chapman, Stokes, Varcoe, Byrnes and co will then require attention beyond the capabilities of the Lions undermanned defence.
Patful is quite nimble, he should get Johnson.
At the other end, Scarlett will make life very tough for Fevola, Harry Taylor or Lonergan to get dibs on Brown. So even though the two key Lions loom as a threat every time they play, the Cats are more then equipped to limit them, especially if the Lions enter the forard arch as rarely as they did last week.
Ottens is tracking along better with each passing week, and the Cats midfield depth will be far too strong for a Lions side nursing a couple of out of form players, and minus the superstar Simon Black.
Bartel, Selwood, Ablett and co will have a picnic on Saturday afternoon as it's hard to picture the Lions being able to put the clamps on them.
The order of the day for Brisbane is to compete, fight and scrap, and work for each other to put the wheels in motion for the ressurection of the club going into 2011.
For Geelong it's about steadying the ship, banking another four points, getting out injury free and moving on to next week.
Often these games can be uneventful low scoring routs, such as a 16 goal to 5 result and I suspect we will get similar here.
The classy Geelong side will do exactly what they have to do and nothing more.
Geelong by 61 points.
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