Hawthorn vs Fremantle - Aurora Stadium - Saturday
Hawthorn 8th - 10-9-1 - 104.55%
Fremantle 5th - 12-8 - 110.36%
Chilly Tasmania will play host to a crucial clash on saturday afternoon between a couple of finalists that could shape the make up of games in the first week.
Hawthorn are 95% accross the line to play finals and a win this saturday will lock that away completely whilst Fremantle are stuttering badly in the run home, losing another game at Subiaco last week, this time to the desperate Swans.
For Fremantle, they need to fight hard to hold on to their home final. They still also have a statistical chance of finishing top four so the motivation will be strong.
If Fremantle lose their last two, they could drop as low as 8th and have to travel to Victoria in the first week of the finals, an assignment which would spell disaster given their current form.
If they can pinch just one win in the last fortnight they will play Carlton, Sydney or Hawthorn in the first week of the finals at Subiaco.
The problem for Fremantle is that they have so many players out of the side at present and have also hit the wall in regards to their young players momentum.
Last week was a tough hard fought contest against Sydney, a game that could have gone either way and Freo were far from terrible but missed a real chance to put pressure on the Bulldogs in fourth.
This week they travel to a venue they won at in controversial circumstances in 2006, and this is their first visit to Tasmania since that famous day.
Fremantle's prospects on the road are slim given recent form, with their average losing margin in the past three away games being 52 points.
Their home form has dropped away as well, but some early season progress made on the road has fallen away badly in recent weeks.
Some of the major concerns have been that they are unable to hault opposition momentum.
In the past five weeks, Fremantle have conceeded an average of 407 disposals a game, the most of any side, with a staggering 69% of them uncontested.
Some of the young exciting names in the midfield will have very bright futures, and to that end, Fremantle can't be shattered with the fall away, but right now they have hit a road block on their season.
They are also being stifled with their run and forced to overuse the ball in tight rather then playing their hard running, long kicking game. They have gone from 6th in the comp for long kicks per game, to 15th, but the large aurora ground combined with Hawthorn's lack of blistering leg speed means they will have a bit more freedom.
For the Hawks, last week was a virtual elimination final and they produced a gutsy win over the plucky young demons to exercise some of the pain from last year's loss to Essendon in a near identical game.
When push came to shove, they had more class and experience and produced an impressive last term to pull away and all but secure a place in September.
They have Collingwood in the last game though, so a loss to Fremantle would put them in serious danger with the Kangaroos still in the mix if they can win both their games from here.
Hawthorn's win last week arrested an alarming trend with the Hawks belted in contested posessions over the previous fortnight.
In fact last week was their best contested ball differential in a game this season which is a key area ahead of September.
They also smacked Melbourne in the Inside fifites, and defensively held up well against an effective forward combination that had been in good form.
Over the past five weeks, Hawthorn have conceeded the least disposals in the competition but have allowed teams to play at a very high efficiency which indicates their pressure skills have dropped away.
That hints what I thought was the case last week in that they were a little tired after 3 months of high intensity footy.
In the past four weeks, Hawthorn have retained posession from 71% of posessions which ranks 14th, but they face a Fremantle side that has been pretty loose over recent weeks and they should enjoy a bit more freedom.
Tasmania has been a happy hunting ground for the Hawks, particularly against non victorian sides and they have lost just twice to "interstate sides" in the years they have been down there.
That won't change this week with the Hawks boasting a forward line that is too potent for the undermanned fremantle defence, a midfield with far too much clearance power and class and a defence that should be able to contain the Dockers.
With Aaron Sandilands likely to miss again, Fremantle will not carry a ruck supremacy into the game and will need Tarrant or Mayne to return to help straighten them up, with both unlikely.
Stratton should get first crack at Pavlich, whilst Schoenmakers will get Bradley if he goes forward.
Fremantle will probably put Grover on Franklin, with McPharlin likely to get Roughead. Cyril Rioli will return for the Hawks as the X Factor and his class will be a vital inclusion.
Hawthorn will secure a place in the eight on saturday afternoon with a solid win over the classy yet tired Dockers.
Hawthorn by 28 points
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Preview- St.Kilda vs Richmond - Round 21
St.Kilda vs Richmond - Etihad Stadium - Saturday
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 124.51%
Richmond 15th - 6-14 - 71.44%
On Saturday afternoon Ben Cousins will play his penultimate AFL game in what looms as a huge test for his young tiger teammates against one of the competitions best teams St.Kilda.
Signs of fatigue have been evident in recent weeks for Richmond with a fade out late against Melbourne, followed by probably their worst loss of the season last week against the Blues.
They were again strong in the clearances which has been a big area for them all year, but they lost a bit of that ferocity and aggression at the contest.
With young legs this can happen. The ability to push to the next contest and keep chasing and harassing can be a struggle as a long season drags on but they owe it to themselves to finish this year with a strong last fortnight to do justice to their efforts.
They haven't undone their hard work by any means in the last few weeks, but fans would have felt a touch dissapointed no doubt.
Jack Riewoldt is being double and sometimes triple teamed at present and this was always going to happen after his red hot patch a month or so ago. The problem now is that the Tigers don't have a mature key forward to help him out. They will in time, just not yet as Griffiths is injured, Jayden Post is still raw and Mitch Morton is a) not big enough and b) being groomed elsewhere.
Jake King continues to perform as a small forward kicking goals and also restricting an opposition runner off half back. He might get Jason Gram this week.
Brett Deledio is also copping a fair bit of attention as teams put homework into his run off halfback, and also that of the skipper Chris Newman.
It's all part of the learning process for the young emerging Tigers who have a ton of upside, they just need to mature a bit, and develop some bigger bodies.
Last time they met St.Kilda, Richmond had a staggering 19 more clearances then the Saints, and for much of the evening they made life quite difficult for the reigning Grand Finalists.
The blueprint this week needs to be similar. Daniel Jackson didn't play that night, he will tag probably Montagna like he did last year, but he along with Martin, Cousins, Tuck and the returning Trent Cotchin will go against Hayes, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna, Jones and co for the Saints.
St.Kilda appear to have the better names, but the Tigers strength is clearance work and St.Kilda will be well aware of what happened last time in that third term.
For St.Kilda last week was the first time they have won the clearances since Round 14 which arrested a trend that was starting to get quite alarming.
The next fortnight is all about building momentum and further developing their game for another assault on a flag commencing with a likely first final against Geelong.
They have secured top four which was the prime objective, and will be hoping to use the plucky Tigers, and the dogged Adelaide next week at Aami Stadium to get the structure right and the "Saints footy" model functioning well.
The last two weeks have seen a greater spread of goal kickers, more flair and a bit more freedom of ball movement which is more like St.Kilda's model.
They are actually quite a high scoring and attacking team when executing the game plan properly.
There is no doubt the style is built on defence, but it is only when they are tied down or struggling that they look cumbersome, as most sides do.
Michael Gardiner should return this week, and Steven Baker is probably the only other member of the best 22 to return for the finals, meaning they have a fairly fit list to choose from.
Zac Dawson is another who will be considered, but that may be a horses for courses scenario.
Justin Koschitzke showed some better signs last week in terms of his contested marking and attack on the ball, but he still needs to get his hands on the pill a bit more and hit the scoreboard consistently.
They cannot win the flag without him, so he must find peak form if they are to have a legitimate chance against the Cats, Pies, Dogs and Hawks.
Nick Riewoldt was the other big positive last week with seven goals from twelve shots and also the good games of Sam Fisher and Sam Gilbert who seem to have re-discovered their run off half back.
This week I'd expect Blake to get first crack at Riewoldt, with Fisher an option if pace becomes a problem and probably Gwilt as option three.
King v Gram will be interesting, with Gilbert perhaps getting Morton or Post if they float accross half forward.
At the other end, Will Thursfield might return and play on Nick Riewoldt as he had a reasonable game on him a few years back, Moore or McGuane should take Kozi, but it is the Milne match up they will need to sort out.
Milne has kicked 7, 4 and 5 against the Tigers in his last three meetings with Newman and Edwards both getting a gig on him in recent times.
Perhaps Jake King might have to go back, or maybe the skipper will get another go at it.
Clinton Jones will probably tag Martin I dare say in the middle which is a huge wrap for the young kid.
Richmond have to be respected given their flair, pace and clearance work, but St.Kilda are building for September, have the more mature bodies and the greater spread of talent and should win their third game in a row quite comfortably.
For Ben Cousins, this is the second last time he will take to the field and fans should get along to pay tribute to one of the modern era's finest footballers. A fact I hope is remembered much more then his off field troubles.
Expect him to play a big game this week as he will be making every post a winner in the next two weeks before heading off into the sunset.
Expect his teammates to lift for him too as they love him to bits, but that probably won't be enough to topple one of the flag fancies who need to maintain their momentum over a crucial fortnight leading into September.
St.Kilda by 40 points
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 124.51%
Richmond 15th - 6-14 - 71.44%
On Saturday afternoon Ben Cousins will play his penultimate AFL game in what looms as a huge test for his young tiger teammates against one of the competitions best teams St.Kilda.
Signs of fatigue have been evident in recent weeks for Richmond with a fade out late against Melbourne, followed by probably their worst loss of the season last week against the Blues.
They were again strong in the clearances which has been a big area for them all year, but they lost a bit of that ferocity and aggression at the contest.
With young legs this can happen. The ability to push to the next contest and keep chasing and harassing can be a struggle as a long season drags on but they owe it to themselves to finish this year with a strong last fortnight to do justice to their efforts.
They haven't undone their hard work by any means in the last few weeks, but fans would have felt a touch dissapointed no doubt.
Jack Riewoldt is being double and sometimes triple teamed at present and this was always going to happen after his red hot patch a month or so ago. The problem now is that the Tigers don't have a mature key forward to help him out. They will in time, just not yet as Griffiths is injured, Jayden Post is still raw and Mitch Morton is a) not big enough and b) being groomed elsewhere.
Jake King continues to perform as a small forward kicking goals and also restricting an opposition runner off half back. He might get Jason Gram this week.
Brett Deledio is also copping a fair bit of attention as teams put homework into his run off halfback, and also that of the skipper Chris Newman.
It's all part of the learning process for the young emerging Tigers who have a ton of upside, they just need to mature a bit, and develop some bigger bodies.
Last time they met St.Kilda, Richmond had a staggering 19 more clearances then the Saints, and for much of the evening they made life quite difficult for the reigning Grand Finalists.
The blueprint this week needs to be similar. Daniel Jackson didn't play that night, he will tag probably Montagna like he did last year, but he along with Martin, Cousins, Tuck and the returning Trent Cotchin will go against Hayes, Dal Santo, Goddard, Montagna, Jones and co for the Saints.
St.Kilda appear to have the better names, but the Tigers strength is clearance work and St.Kilda will be well aware of what happened last time in that third term.
For St.Kilda last week was the first time they have won the clearances since Round 14 which arrested a trend that was starting to get quite alarming.
The next fortnight is all about building momentum and further developing their game for another assault on a flag commencing with a likely first final against Geelong.
They have secured top four which was the prime objective, and will be hoping to use the plucky Tigers, and the dogged Adelaide next week at Aami Stadium to get the structure right and the "Saints footy" model functioning well.
The last two weeks have seen a greater spread of goal kickers, more flair and a bit more freedom of ball movement which is more like St.Kilda's model.
They are actually quite a high scoring and attacking team when executing the game plan properly.
There is no doubt the style is built on defence, but it is only when they are tied down or struggling that they look cumbersome, as most sides do.
Michael Gardiner should return this week, and Steven Baker is probably the only other member of the best 22 to return for the finals, meaning they have a fairly fit list to choose from.
Zac Dawson is another who will be considered, but that may be a horses for courses scenario.
Justin Koschitzke showed some better signs last week in terms of his contested marking and attack on the ball, but he still needs to get his hands on the pill a bit more and hit the scoreboard consistently.
They cannot win the flag without him, so he must find peak form if they are to have a legitimate chance against the Cats, Pies, Dogs and Hawks.
Nick Riewoldt was the other big positive last week with seven goals from twelve shots and also the good games of Sam Fisher and Sam Gilbert who seem to have re-discovered their run off half back.
This week I'd expect Blake to get first crack at Riewoldt, with Fisher an option if pace becomes a problem and probably Gwilt as option three.
King v Gram will be interesting, with Gilbert perhaps getting Morton or Post if they float accross half forward.
At the other end, Will Thursfield might return and play on Nick Riewoldt as he had a reasonable game on him a few years back, Moore or McGuane should take Kozi, but it is the Milne match up they will need to sort out.
Milne has kicked 7, 4 and 5 against the Tigers in his last three meetings with Newman and Edwards both getting a gig on him in recent times.
Perhaps Jake King might have to go back, or maybe the skipper will get another go at it.
Clinton Jones will probably tag Martin I dare say in the middle which is a huge wrap for the young kid.
Richmond have to be respected given their flair, pace and clearance work, but St.Kilda are building for September, have the more mature bodies and the greater spread of talent and should win their third game in a row quite comfortably.
For Ben Cousins, this is the second last time he will take to the field and fans should get along to pay tribute to one of the modern era's finest footballers. A fact I hope is remembered much more then his off field troubles.
Expect him to play a big game this week as he will be making every post a winner in the next two weeks before heading off into the sunset.
Expect his teammates to lift for him too as they love him to bits, but that probably won't be enough to topple one of the flag fancies who need to maintain their momentum over a crucial fortnight leading into September.
St.Kilda by 40 points
Preview - Geelong vs Carlton Round 21
Geelong vs Carlton - Etihad Stadium - Friday Night
Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%
Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.
For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.
The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.
He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.
The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.
Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.
Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.
Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.
Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.
You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.
They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.
They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.
The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.
Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.
That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.
A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.
The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.
The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!
Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.
In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.
Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.
Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.
Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.
One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.
The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.
Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.
It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.
I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.
At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.
Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.
As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.
Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.
One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.
In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.
They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.
Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.
But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.
Geelong by 32 points
Geelong 2nd - 15-5 - 146.95%
Carlton 6th - 11-9 - 111.76%
Friday night football will play host to another mouth watering contest between the champs in Geelong, and the rejuvenated young Blues.
For Carlton this presents another challenge against a top side, and for the Cats it's the chance to turn the tables on a team that has had a rare stranglehold on them with the Blues winning the past two meetings of these two sides.
The last fortnight has been a real coaching triumph for Brett Ratten who made the tough calls and is being rewarded for it.
He made no secret of his dissapointment after the Collingwood game with accusations of blokes not putting their head over the ball and he responded by dropping four players.
The blokes he brought in had a real crack, competed hard and got the results. The Blues won by 76 points and responded in the best possible way.
Two of the players dropped were Andrew Walker and Brad Fisher and they played absolute blinders in the VFL with one getting 47 touches and the other kicking ten goals and it posed a selection dilemma for the Carlton coaching staff.
Ratten decided however to stick to his guns, and made no change to the side that demolished Essendon and the end response was an 89 point win over the Tigers.
Ratten made tough calls each week and it has paid off, but more importantly his players responded.
Marc Murphy has had a ripping fortnight after a poor year, Judd is flying as usual, but Grigg, Robinson, Henderson, Hadley and Bower have all added some significant improvement to the side in the last few weeks and this has helped take them forward.
You see how well that forward line can function when the midfield gets on top and provides good supply.
They didn't work hard enough for several weeks but when they are on, they have a midfield that borders on elite.
They remain suscpetible to pressure, and Essendon and Richmond provided next to none, so this week will be a nice challenge.
The forward line is small so when the midfield is pressured into pumping it in their long they can be susceptible, and Geelong are the best in the business at dealing with the long ball inside fifty.
Carlton tore Geelong apart with their pace back in Round 5, and it was the amount of goals from midfielders pushing forward, and their quality smalls that undid Geelong and they must beat them the same way.
That is easier said then done though as the Cats issued one heck of a statement last week.
A 101 point win over another top four side is a fairly significant message to the competition that this team is very much still at the top of it's game and capable of pushing for a fourth consecutive grand final.
The loss to Collingwood shook them up a bit, and with certain people, namely Tim Lane, questioning their future they were always going to be breathing fire.
The Bulldogs no doubt felt the pinch, with several players ill but this is an impossible variable to measure in terms of it's total effect, but one thing we can say is, it does not work out to 101 points!
Corey Enright played with the most freedom he has in several weeks, Andrew Mackie marshalled the defence superbly, Tom Hawkins found some touch in the ruck and the big J-Pod played a very good game against quality opposition away from Skilled Stadium which was very pleasing.
In the space of 40 minutes, Geelong had 74 more disposals, 14 more inside fifties, 11 more clearances and kicked 13.4.82 to 0.1.1. That is a total route and demonstration that when on song, Geelong remain the most devastating team in the league.
Daniel Menzel and Jeremy Laidler showed a bit as well as young players coming into the side so that is a good sign for the Cats future.
Cameron Ling, Joel Corey, Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should be back in the mix for selection this week which presents interesting dilemmas for Mark Thompson and his men.
Some, in particular Robert Walls have questioned whether Cameron Ling is in their best 22 anymore, but he clearly is, particularly in September.
One of Collingwood's shortcomings in last years finals campaign was the lack of a shutdown player in the middle.
The Cats had Ling, the Saints had Jones and the Bulldogs had Picken but the Pies didn't have someone capable of putting the brakes on one of the opposition's prime movers.
Geelong need Cameron Ling for his experience, his toughness and also his ability to tag Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Boyd, Hodge etc if required in finals.
It is very difficult to win finals if you don't at least do a lockdown job on someone and Ling is an absolute certainty to play.
I would expect Scarlett to get Waite, Harry Taylor to go with Henderson, Lonergan to be left out due to match ups ( the cats went in too tall last time these sides met), and some homework to be put into the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett with Mackie, Enright, Hunt and co to get the job on these boys and try to hurt them as always going the other way.
At the other end, Jamison will get J-Pod with the more mobile Bower likely to get Mooney.
Joseph should tag Ablett as he has done reasonably well in the past whilst Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Grigg and Scotland going head to head with Ablett, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, Bartel and Kelly in the middle.
As good as the Blues are, the Cats still hold a key edge here not just offensively, but with the ability to be accountable going the other way.
Geelong have a greater propensity to break down Carlton's fast running game then the Blues do conversely for the Cats.
One thing the last two losses to the Blues have had in common has been the MCG. The Blues were able to use the space inside fifty to expose the Cats defence once hitting up on the rebound.
This game is at Etihad Stadium a venue at which Geelong are probably the best side we have ever seen.
In the past three years the Cats have averaged 128 points a game, and produced an average winning margin of 66 points.
They have a great record everywhere, but that is a phenomenal stat for the Cats at the indoor surface.
Right now they have a bit too much class for an improved Carlton side who are safe in the eight, but could finish as high as fifth if results go their way.
But a win over the Cats will not be forthcoming for Brett Ratten's men on friday night. They have the class to make this close, but Geelong could well be a sleeping giant that has just awoken and their depth of talent in all areas remains a cut above the boys from Visy Park, and win number 16 will be forthcoming on a season that still promises to further write this team's name in history.
Geelong by 32 points
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