Hawthorn vs Collingwood - MCG- Saturday
Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%
Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.
For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.
Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.
It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.
Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?
Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.
Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.
Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.
Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.
They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.
They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.
Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.
Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.
For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.
However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.
Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.
If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.
If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).
It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.
I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.
Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.
Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.
Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.
At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.
Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.
Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.
This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.
Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.
Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.
Collingwood by 8 points
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Preview - Geelong vs Westcoast - Round 22
Geelong vs Westcoast - Skilled Stadium - Round 22
Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%
Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?
The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.
For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.
Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.
Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.
Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.
Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.
Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.
Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.
In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.
For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.
Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.
Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.
Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.
Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.
Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.
Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.
Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.
They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.
John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.
This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.
Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.
Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.
Geelong by 77 points.
Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%
Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?
The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.
For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.
Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.
Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.
Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.
Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.
Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.
Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.
In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.
For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.
Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.
Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.
Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.
Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.
Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.
Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.
Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.
They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.
John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.
This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.
Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.
Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.
Geelong by 77 points.
Preview- Fremantle vs Carlton - Round 22
Fremantle vs Carlton - Subiaco - Friday Night
Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%
Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.
Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.
Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.
For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.
Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.
Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.
However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.
The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.
The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.
Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.
In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.
Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.
This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.
Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.
For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.
Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.
Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.
You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.
It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.
Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.
Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.
Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.
You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.
The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.
But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.
With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.
Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.
But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.
Carlton by 15 points
Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%
Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.
Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.
Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.
For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.
Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.
Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.
However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.
The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.
The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.
Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.
In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.
Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.
This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.
Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.
For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.
Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.
Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.
You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.
It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.
Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.
Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.
Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.
You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.
The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.
But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.
With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.
Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.
But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.
Carlton by 15 points
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