Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - Aami Stadium - Sunday
Adelaide 11th - 7-11 -91.92%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 12-6 - 141.27%
Round 19 will conclude at Aami Stadium with yet another intriguing game. The young Crows who cling to life by a thread in season 2010 will take on a Western Bulldogs outfit that cannot afford a slip up if it is to finish top four.
Adelaide's last two weeks have probably killed them, but the fact so many rivals for a spot in the eight have been losing as well, means they remain slightly in the hunt, but they will need to win all four games which seems improbable given the draw.
Last week they had Richmond on toast for the entire second quarter, but squandered several chances to put them away and ended up being over hauled after half time in a game reminiscint of the 1998 Grand Final which Crows fans would remember well.
With some experienced players injured or unavailable for a lot of the year the Crows have been forced to blood several youngsters and the majority look to have a bright future.
Sloane, Mackay, Henderson and Davis have looked good this year, and combine that with the continued development of Dangerfield, Walker, Douglas and Vince and Adelaide's prospects in 2011 aren't all that bleak.
They have been lacking some key experience at crucial stages of the last two games and it has cost them at important moments.
You could see that being a problem against the experienced and in form Bulldogs this week, but the Crows are always a hard nut to crack at home.
Last time they played a visiting team at home it was Geelong and they took the points that night so the Bulldogs will still need to bring every bit of their best form to win the game.
Adelaide's defence contained Jack Riewoldt last week through Rutten, and I could see him restricting Barry Hall. Johncock's return should help cover one of the Bulldogs smalls like a Gia or Higgins or perhaps even Johnson but it was Richmond's spread last week that got the better of the Crows.
Their defence is solid but lacks a bit of pace, and their midfield at this stage is a bit inconsistent given the young nature of the group.
This means the ball often comes down quickly and players find space more readily then normal against the Crows.
The Tigers had 11 goal kickers last week and kicked several sharp crumbing or stoppage goals after half time.
Adelaide rank third for restricting the opposition from marking inside fifty, but have been worse when the ball has hit the deck.
Expect Craig to be focusing on their front and square work in defence and protecting space in defensive fifty at a stoppage.
For the Bulldogs, the last month has been their best of the season. Big scores, lots of run, slick ball movement and four crushing wins on the trot has put them right in the mix for top four again.
Barry Hall is now joint leader in the Coleman, Jarrod Grant continues to develop whilst Johnson, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Murphy get better with each passing week.
Defensively the run provided by Gilbee, Harbrow, Murphy and co has been fantastic and Lake, Hargrave, Morris and Williams are all doing their job.
They can struggle at Aami Stadium from time to time, and with a game against Geelong to come, it is super critical that they get a result here.
Adelaide play with some flair but are primarily built on defence. The Bulldogs are the competitions slickest movers of the footy, and the most attacking, high scoring team in the competition so it's a battle of contrasts in many ways.
Lake will make life tough for the out of form Tippett, Morris should get Walker, Harbrow will take the porpoise, whilst Dangerfield and Henderson will need some close attention as well.
Jaensch and Sloane have been good of late and must be monitored also.
In the middle the Bulldogs spread of talent should shine through.
Boyd, Cooney, Cross, Higgins, Griffen and Gilbee should have too much for Vince, Van Berlo, Mackay, Thompson and potentially Goodwin.
Accuracy has been an issue of course as well for the crows. They are ranked 15th for converting shots this season so must sharpen up and take their chances, as they did against Geelong if they are to get home.
The Bulldogs are the number one side for marks once inside fifty, and as said above the Crows are one of the best at restricting this stat.
However I think they will struggle to contain the full compliment of scoring options at the Bulldogs disposal and try as they might they will eventually get outrun.
The Crows are capable of winning this game and the Bulldogs must be sharp, but with a top four berth on the line, and a fleet of quality players in form, they will be too strong.
For Adelaide, the difficult season that has been 2010 will finally be put to rest on Sunday.
Western Bulldogs by 22 points
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Preview - Melbourne vs Richmond -Round 19
Melbourne vs Richmond - MCG - Sunday
Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%
This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.
Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.
They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.
Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.
I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.
The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.
They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.
Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.
Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.
After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.
Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.
An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.
Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.
James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.
The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.
For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.
Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.
They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.
This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.
Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.
Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.
In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.
The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.
It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).
Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.
There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.
I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.
It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.
Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.
Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.
As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.
Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.
Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.
Richmond by 5 points
Melbourne 10th - 7-10-1 - 95.09%
Richmond 14th - 6-12 - 73.73%
This Sunday the MCG will play host to two teams with very bright futures in a fascinating clash of particular importance in shaping the final eight.
Melbourne can take a big step towards a surprise finals appearance if they win this game. Given the faltering form of some of their rivals in the eight at present, the door is open for Melbourne.
They must win at least three games between now and the end of the year, and quite possibly all four.
Although possible, that is unlikely as they are still prone to inconsistency.
To make the eight they would probably need to finish the season on close to a seven game winning streak. As good as they are, and will be, that seems beyond them even if the games in theory seem winnable.
I doubt personally that they can stay up that long, but we have seen them play some wonderful football when their confidence is up so I'm not going to rule them out.
The main focus for Melbourne is to continue to develop kids and just take each game as it comes and build something more for the future with every passing week.
They have an undoubted wealth of good kids, and after watching the Casey Scorpions last week I can conclude there are at least seven future guns running around at that level for them, so they will have a tremendous list that must leave all fans salivating at what lies ahead.
Last week the Dees were excellent for a half, then a little dissapointing for a half. In the first they were superb with their spread from the contest and just dominated the stoppages.
Their use of the ball was a significant level above Brisbane's and they appeared destined to blow them away.
After half time though the appeared tired and sloppy, and managed to hang on due to some poor discipline and a lack of precision by the Lions.
Often teams fall victim to the humidity in Brisbane after half time, and the Lions have been notoriously strong finishers at home so it's not a major surprise but Dean Bailey would have been a touch dissapointed with the way they faded.
An area Melbourne are really developing in is defence. In the past six weeks Melbourne have conceded less scores per Inside Fifty then any other side in the competition.
Defence is seen as the lorgical starting place when building a premiership team, and the Dees are building a very good one.
James Frawley is likely to get the job on Jack Riewoldt this week in a battle of two future champions taken out of the same draft a few years back.
The Dees will be hoping to welcome back Brent Moloney as his hardness has caused problems for Richmond in the past, and he dominated their most recent clash in Round four.
For the Tigers, last week was another win of character after two very poor weeks. They were on the ropes in the second quarter and totally at Adelaide's mercy, but the crows failed to put them away.
Richmond then did what good sides do and made them pay with a dominant second half that netted ten goals to four.
They have now beaten every interstate side in the competition but are yet to claim the scalp of a victorian club.
This week presents them with a big chance provided they can maintain last week's form without lapsing like they did in the previous fortnight.
Deledio, Newman and Connors are probably the three best kicks in the team, and Damien Hardwick is setting them all up accross half back much like the Hawthorn side did when Hardwick was involved about five years ago with Hodge, Birchall, Ellis, Young, Guerra and Ladson all floating accross half back.
Richmond have sharpened up by foot as a result of putting their creators in the most important positions and they are also very strong around the stoppages hence their dramatic improvement.
In the last nine weeks, Richmond are ranked second for tackles, and third for contested posessions so they have added a real hardness to their game.
The main concern is efficiency going forward. In the past three weeks they have hit a target with just 38% of forward entries, and this emerging demon defence will bring them undone if they are that sloppy again.
It looms as a fascinating battle with two emerging midfields, one that is excellent inside with it's clearance and contest work (Richmond), and the other that appears to be emulating itself on Geelong with it's run and spread from the contest and numbers around the ball at all times (Melbourne).
Not co-incidentally Hawthorn and Geelong are the last two premiers and have revolutionised the game tactically in completely different ways.
There is a fair chance these two sides will have sustained success over a period of time so it's interesting the trends they are tending to follow.
I'm really warming to Dean Bailey. I reckon he is doing a wonderful job developing them and has developed a game plan to their strengths.
It is a hard game to split. Melbourne are a bit better at their best, but both are inconsistent as expected.
Throw in the fact Melbourne are returning from a humid night in Brisbane, whilst Richmond have one less day to prepare.
Last time these sides met, Melbourne won by 55 points. But they have 5 changes to their side since then, and conversely Richmond have 7 changes, so I wouldn't necessarily take a lot out of that.
As a rule, these sides match up well on each other but I'm tipping an upset of sorts this week. Melbourne have been up for a while, but I think Richmond can get on top in the middle with the Dees missing a couple of key clearance players.
Just a gut feeling also, but Melbourne might get a touch of reality, and by no means a cruel one, that although they are travelling along beautifully, they have a few more hurdles to cross before they become a top side and the odd lull is too be expected.
Expect one from the young Dees sunday against the plucky Tiges given they are coming off a tough road trip on a hard ground on a warm night.
The Gabba trip has taken plenty out of several sides this year, and expect it to happen again.
Richmond by 5 points
Preview- St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Round 19
St.Kilda vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday
St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%
Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.
St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.
One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.
Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.
But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.
Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.
He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.
Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.
Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.
St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.
Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.
They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.
Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.
Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.
Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.
St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.
They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.
St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.
In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.
A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.
Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.
His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.
They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.
Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.
Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.
Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.
Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.
After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.
St.Kilda by 25 points
St.Kilda - 3rd - 12-5-1 - 115.63%
Port Adelaide - 13th - 7-11 - 81.36%
Things have not gone to script over the past three weeks for the Saints who face a rejuvenated Port Adelaide side this Sunday in an important game.
St.Kilda have not won for a month and if they fail to do so this week, they could potentially fall out of the top four, a thought most would have deemed impossible for much of the season.
Port Adelaide on the other hand have found a new lease on life in recent weeks. A showdown victory followed by a gutsy come from behind win over Hawthorn has put Matthew Primus in the box seat to snare the coaching job long term.
One thing we are seeing from Port is some fight and spirit, not something we have been used to associating with them.
Generally as a rule they have been the poorest side at overhauling opposition leads. Once behind, they are usually no chance. And once challenged physically often they would just fall over.
But they have weathered some storms in the past fortnight and have come out of it with two victories. This needs to be the start of something for them going forward as they have some talented young players they can build with.
Tactically, Primus has delivered a couple of rippers since taking the job. His match ups last week were perfect. He managed to restrict Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli, take Roughead out of the game and open the forward line up enough for Jay Schulz and Brett Ebert to cause headaches for the improving, yet vulnerable Hawks defence.
He will face similar challenges this week against a St.Kilda side that is struggling to find it's best form yet remains one of the competitions most difficult teams.
Sam Gilbert and Sam Fisher have been restricted over recent weeks, and this is really limiting St.Kilda's run.
Teams are also spreading St.Kilda's defenders and isolating them one on one where they can be shaky.
St.Kilda's defensive unit when functioning as a whole is outstanding, possibly the best the game has seen, but when the defenders are isolated they can be susceptible to quick ball movement and Essendon is a side that exploits that better then anyone has against St.Kilda lately.
Port Adelaide are capable of moving it quickly, although not to the same level, nor with the same precision as Essendon.
They also have a forward line that doesn't have the potency of Essendon although it is in good form.
Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff are playing as well as they possibly ever have, and Ebert has a very good record against St.Kilda.
Expect Blake to get Schulz given Dawson's absence. Gwilt will probably get Ebert and Fisher should take Westhoff accross half back.
Steven Baker would have played on Robbie Grey, but expect Gram to more then likely get that gig.
St.Kilda's form is an interesting point of discussion. Yes their are some concerns, but it isn't quite as bad as people think. They were poor against Collingwood, I thought quite good, albeit lucky against Hawthorn and then they got pulled apart by an Essendon side that has had it's measure for a long time.
They have some things to sort out though. Firstly they need to get the defence working cohesively, and also up the pressure again through the middle.
St.Kilda last year were conceeding 40 Inside Fifties a game which is an all time record low. In the past month, teams have been punching through far more frequently so they need to tighten up again with their zone.
In attack, they found numerous avenues to goal when Riewoldt was out. They need to utilise these again as they have fallen into the habit of going to the superstar far too often.
A big game isn't far away for Nick, but St.Kilda have Schneider, Milne, Steven, Goddard and Montagna all as big contributors this season and Gram, Dal Santo, Peake and Gardiner can all push forward or deliver running goals if they just lift their eyes a bit when pushing into attack.
Koschitzke continues to struggle, but last week he was starved of chances after a promising display against the Hawks.
His form accross the season probably warrants omission, but St.Kilda can't win the flag if he doesn't stand up and contribute in September so they need to pick him.
They have their troubles with Port Adelaide, generally their fleet of runners in particular and smaller forward set up, but expect a turnaround in intensity for the Saints this week and if they lift in that area, they should be able to contain them and deliver a much needed four points.
Expect Carlisle to take Koschitzke, and whilst Trengove has put his hand up to play on Riewoldt, I reckon Chaplin will get first crack.
Kane Cornes will tag Dal Santo in all likelihood, and conversely Clinton Jones should get a stopping job on David Rodan who destroyed St.Kilda in Round 5.
Dean Brogan flew solo last week in the ruck last week, but he will get stiffer competition this week from Gardiner and McEvoy who have been solid.
Port Adelaide have found a bit of form, and will be in this game for a lot of the day, but St.Kilda should be stung on the back of some criticism and questions about their form and premiership chances.
After an even first half, expect St.Kilda to edge away and win the game comfortably.
St.Kilda by 25 points
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