Sydney vs Carlton - ANZ Stadium - Sunday
Sydney 5th - 13-9-108.27%
Carlton 8th - 11-11 - 108.07%
Week one of the finals will conclude on Sunday with the in form Swans taking on a Carlton side entering back to back finals campaigns.
Last year Carlton experienced september heartbreak at the hands of the Brisbane Lions after leading by five goals early in the last quarter before being overrun.
Many clubs have been linked to some pain as motivation and Carlton are one that must surely carry that in the back of their minds.
The Blues are still on a journey, a journey that began as many as eight years ago when they bottomed out and lost draft picks and had to start a slow and painful rebuild.
Last year that climb finally got them back into the eight, and the next step is to win a final and these Blues on their day posess the tools to do so.
They will enjoy the fact this game is at ANZ Stadium as opposed to the SCG, as the smaller cricket ground does not suit their fast run and spread game.
Sydney are the masters at bottling up the space at the SCG and taking control of the stoppages, on the wider expanses of ANZ Stadium it is generally more difficult for Sydney to execute their style effectively and they boast a less then 50% winning record at the ground.
Carlton need to create space over the back of the contest like they did early and late against Fremantle last week.
In the first and last terms they backed their legs, ran hard and kicked long which broke over the back of Fremantle's rolling zone and created a lot of easy goals in space.
Sydney execute a more disciplined defensive press then Fremantle, but they do lack genuine leg speed in some crucial areas.
Basically this is a game that represents two sides with contrasting stryles so it promises to be a fascinating battle.
For Sydney, the last month has been a real triumph for the wonderful partnership between the departing Paul Roos and his troops.
Ever since that inexplicable Melbourne capitulation the Swans have returned to their trademark pressure, intensity and consistent spread of contributions.
Last week was a fantastic workmanlike victory in which they weathered the best Brisbane could throw at them, and then took control and went away impressively after half time.
Keiran Jack's class and poise is superb and he is the next generation of elite Sydney midfielders post the Brett Kirk/Jude Bolton era.
Malceski, McVeigh, Rhys Shaw and co all provided plenty of run, and in the absence of Craig Bolton the likes of Grundy and Richards have slipped into defence and provided a rock solid combination.
The amazing part about Sydney is the ability of players to slip in, find their niche and turn into very good players.
Mike Pyke is the classic example of that, he is one of the competitions most improved players this season and if Mumford plays, they loom as a potentially decisive duo.
Sydney have won 121 more stoppage first posessions this year which is second only to the Bulldogs, and they are the third highest scoring team from this stat this season.
Carlton conversely concede the second most points from stoppage first posessions and have trouble with teams that score from fast breaks, turnovers, rebounds etc as defensively their midfield can struggle.
For what we have said about the bigger ground, statistically their is evidence to suggest it might not help the Blues as much as first thought.
Carlton's disposal efficiency last week was 71%, their worst of the year, and if they repeat that they might get opened up too much the other way, much like what the Dockers did in quarters two and three.
Carlton's effectiveness going forward in the past month has dropped away as well, they average a mark from just 20% of inside fifties ranked 14th in that time, and they must take their chances against the ultra competitive Swans.
In a game of contrasting styles I like the Swans a lot in this one. Carlton deserve respect no doubt for their skill, fast ball movement and dangerous crumbing forwards, but Sydney have the tools to shut them down.
With a host of clearance players in form, dangerous rebounding half backs and one of the games most dynamic players in Adam Goodes I can see the Swans taking this one and progressing to the second week.
It would mean another september date at the MCG for Paul Roos before his swansong. And you just wonder how far his might take things season.
That journey into excitement will start on Sunday.
Sydney by 23 points
Friday, September 3, 2010
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Preview- Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - Qualifying Final
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - MCG - Saturday Night
Collingwood 1st - 17-4-1 - 141.68%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 14-8 - 125.37%
Collingwood and the Bulldogs will clash on Saturday Night for the opportunity to have a week off and host a preliminary final.
The fortunes of the two sides have been heading in opposite directions in recent weeks, but that doesnt change the fact they have both qualified for the top four on the back of the season as a whole so Collingwood will no doubt be very cautious when assessing the wounded Bulldogs.
Collingwood despite a narrow win and a loss to Hawthorn in the past fortnight will enter September chock full of confidence an in the midst of the reality of what is their best premiership chance since the ill fated Brisbane double in 2002/2003.
Josh Fraser has made way this week as expected bringing back Leigh Brown who has enjoyed a super season for the Magpies but Tyson Goldsack was probably a surprise omission.
The Bulldogs aren't the tallest forward line in the world so that probably explains why, but he would have still provided an option for either Hahn or Grant in defence.
Paul Medhurst sadly is in the same boat as Josh Fraser I suspect, in that neither are likely to play AFL Football for Collingwood again, barring some unforeseen injuries in this finals campaign.
Once again if you were to find an issue for Collingwood in recent weeks it would have to be accuracy.
This time they had seven more shots then Hawthorn and a lost, a week earlier they had eight more shots then Adelaide and got home by three points and there is no doubt this is a concern.
Collingwood overwhelm sides through weight of numbers, and simply generate so many inside fifties and so many scoring chances that they are able to produce a winning score regardless, but in finals when scoring becomes tougher, the contest becomes that little bit fiercer, you wonder how many times they can get away with it.
Collingwood average 12 more contested posessions, 14 more tackles and 12 more inside fifties a game then their opponents this year which ranks number one in all three areas which suggests they overwhelm sides through pressure and the volume of entries to the point where it is nearly impossible to keep them out.
For the Bulldogs, last week was an expected and professional win highlighted by the six goal haul to young emerging forward Jarrod Grant.
Ryan Griffen pulled up lame with a knee injury and despite being named, he remains the big mystery ahead of this match.
He will undergo last minute fitness tests and if he is a late withdrawal, the Bulldogs lose arguably their classiest midfield finisher on top of the absence of Cooney and Morris.
Dale Morris is structurally their most important player as he takes the opposition's best forward each week and in the process releases Lake, Hargrave and co to peel off and play loose at any given time.
Harbrow and Gilbee remain the keys when trying to stop this team, the run they provide off half back and the precision they use by foot makes them the most dangerous team in the competition skill wise when in form.
Expect Sidebottom or Ball to get an offensive job on one of them, but the job will be made easier by the fact Gilbee may need more midfield time due to no Cooney, and one or both may have to play more accountable roles without Morris.
That is part of the roll on problem losing these players poses for Rodney Eade.
Shaun Higgins will come back in and he is very much the x factor in this line up. A classy kid who can play forward and midfield, he just needs a sustained run of fitness to assert himself.
He has not been able to have that at any stage of his career so far.
Collingwood are the competitions best tackling team, and the Bulldogs statistically are the worst averaging just 61 a game.
The Bulldogs are also the poorest side accross the last month at turning inside fifties into scores averaging a score with just 39% of their entries.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier has dismantled the Bulldogs twice at Etihad this year, but strangely enough the Dogs may welcome the more space on offer at the somewhat unfamiliar MCG.
However that won't be enough for mine. The Bulldogs will be brave, and are a worthy and dangerous top four foe that could make like difficult for Collingwood, but these Pies are primed and ready for this clash and should get it done.
With a spread of midfield runners, an in form defensive unit and a potent and lively attack the Pies will march into a Preliminary Final and play the Saints or the Cats.
Collingwood by 27 points
Collingwood 1st - 17-4-1 - 141.68%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 14-8 - 125.37%
Collingwood and the Bulldogs will clash on Saturday Night for the opportunity to have a week off and host a preliminary final.
The fortunes of the two sides have been heading in opposite directions in recent weeks, but that doesnt change the fact they have both qualified for the top four on the back of the season as a whole so Collingwood will no doubt be very cautious when assessing the wounded Bulldogs.
Collingwood despite a narrow win and a loss to Hawthorn in the past fortnight will enter September chock full of confidence an in the midst of the reality of what is their best premiership chance since the ill fated Brisbane double in 2002/2003.
Josh Fraser has made way this week as expected bringing back Leigh Brown who has enjoyed a super season for the Magpies but Tyson Goldsack was probably a surprise omission.
The Bulldogs aren't the tallest forward line in the world so that probably explains why, but he would have still provided an option for either Hahn or Grant in defence.
Paul Medhurst sadly is in the same boat as Josh Fraser I suspect, in that neither are likely to play AFL Football for Collingwood again, barring some unforeseen injuries in this finals campaign.
Once again if you were to find an issue for Collingwood in recent weeks it would have to be accuracy.
This time they had seven more shots then Hawthorn and a lost, a week earlier they had eight more shots then Adelaide and got home by three points and there is no doubt this is a concern.
Collingwood overwhelm sides through weight of numbers, and simply generate so many inside fifties and so many scoring chances that they are able to produce a winning score regardless, but in finals when scoring becomes tougher, the contest becomes that little bit fiercer, you wonder how many times they can get away with it.
Collingwood average 12 more contested posessions, 14 more tackles and 12 more inside fifties a game then their opponents this year which ranks number one in all three areas which suggests they overwhelm sides through pressure and the volume of entries to the point where it is nearly impossible to keep them out.
For the Bulldogs, last week was an expected and professional win highlighted by the six goal haul to young emerging forward Jarrod Grant.
Ryan Griffen pulled up lame with a knee injury and despite being named, he remains the big mystery ahead of this match.
He will undergo last minute fitness tests and if he is a late withdrawal, the Bulldogs lose arguably their classiest midfield finisher on top of the absence of Cooney and Morris.
Dale Morris is structurally their most important player as he takes the opposition's best forward each week and in the process releases Lake, Hargrave and co to peel off and play loose at any given time.
Harbrow and Gilbee remain the keys when trying to stop this team, the run they provide off half back and the precision they use by foot makes them the most dangerous team in the competition skill wise when in form.
Expect Sidebottom or Ball to get an offensive job on one of them, but the job will be made easier by the fact Gilbee may need more midfield time due to no Cooney, and one or both may have to play more accountable roles without Morris.
That is part of the roll on problem losing these players poses for Rodney Eade.
Shaun Higgins will come back in and he is very much the x factor in this line up. A classy kid who can play forward and midfield, he just needs a sustained run of fitness to assert himself.
He has not been able to have that at any stage of his career so far.
Collingwood are the competitions best tackling team, and the Bulldogs statistically are the worst averaging just 61 a game.
The Bulldogs are also the poorest side accross the last month at turning inside fifties into scores averaging a score with just 39% of their entries.
Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier has dismantled the Bulldogs twice at Etihad this year, but strangely enough the Dogs may welcome the more space on offer at the somewhat unfamiliar MCG.
However that won't be enough for mine. The Bulldogs will be brave, and are a worthy and dangerous top four foe that could make like difficult for Collingwood, but these Pies are primed and ready for this clash and should get it done.
With a spread of midfield runners, an in form defensive unit and a potent and lively attack the Pies will march into a Preliminary Final and play the Saints or the Cats.
Collingwood by 27 points
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Preview- Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Elimination Final
Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Subiaco - Saturday
Fremantle 6th - 13-9 - 103.88%
Hawthorn 7th - 12-9-1 - 110.67%
Fremantle will host a final for the third time in their history this Saturday as they comfront the experienced and in form Hawks in a cut throat contest.
Hawthorn have eleven wins and a draw from their past fifteen matches which puts them amongst the very best teams in the competition since Round 7, whilst Fremantle have won just three times since Michael Barlow went down with injury but one of those wins was last week.
A hard fought win over the Blues last friday night probably served as vindication for Mark Harvey who was questioned by many for his decision to rest so many big guns the week before (ironically against Hawthorn) in the hope of freshening his side up for an assault on the Blues.
Harvey knew his team only needed to win one of the last two if they were to secure a home final and he didn't want to take the risk of a six day break coming back from Tasmania.
It is hard to argue with that logic, given the Dockers appeared to be tiring as the season went on, and that sort of road trip is probably the hardest there is when coming from Perth.
Aaron Sandilands demonstrated that he is probably the games most influential big man with a 20 posession, 40 hit out game that helped feed Morabito, Hill, Mundy and co who for a lot of the night ran ragged.
Fremantle had the pressure and the run and spread of the early parts of the season, they just didn't nail all of their chances and were a bit wasteful going forward. But on the whole it was an effort that should fill them with confidence.
The question is now, how do they fare against an experienced and hungry Hawthorn side that is in it's best form since winning the flag in 2008.
That Hawthorn side is coming off a stiring three point come from behind win over the ladder leaders Collingwood last week and will welcome Luke Hodge back into the side for this Saturday.
It's hard to gauge how much it meant to the Pies given they could not lose top spot, but it was a good win just the same.
Collingwood led by more then three goals half way through the last quarter so they had to come from a fair way back.
Lance Franklin was superb with six goals, and Cyril Rioli starred through the middle and up forward with 27 touches and two goals.
Roughead, Ellis, Burgoyne, Stratton and a host of others were all solid contributors and they will be looking for more of the same.
Subiaco hasn't been a happy hunting ground of recent times for Hawthorn, but usually it has been the Eagles that have given them most grief, they did beat Fremantle on their most recent meeting in Perth last year on a friday night.
The interesting match to look at is two weeks ago. Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 116 points in Launceston and Mark Harvey quipped that the game meant Freo had had a look at them, but the Hawks conversely hadn't seen any of what the real Dockers would look like.
That is probably clutching at straws but I like the sentiment in it. Harvey has had his war face on these past couple of weeks and the response has been good, they will need a similar response this week.
I think it best to just scrap that game from discussion, as Hawthorn are well aware that this Fremantle side will bear almost no resemblance to the one they faced so it's best they approach it is a blank canvas.
Hayden Ballantyne went down with another apparent stress fracture last week which will hurt, as he provides plenty of spark, but Des Headland is a man in the mix for selection and it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a crack given his experience.
On the other side, Hawthorn will almost certainly persist with Wade Skipper as it's second ruckmen. His mobility will be important on the big ground at Subiaco when trying to counteract Aaron Sandilands impact.
Hodge, Guerra, Young, Ellis, Burgoyne and co will provide plenty of run and precision off half back and despite their overall lack of pace, they have the skills and long kicking ability to exploit Fremantle over the back of their zone.
Carlton were able to shoot over the top of the zone defence and score goals in behind them much like Collingwood did earlier this year when they beat Fremantle.
You could also see it in their losses to St.Kilda and the Bulldogs in the second half of the year.
Fremantle are quick, but their zone can be broken down. Pace though is something they can use as a strength.
Hawthorn can be outrun in space if they turn the ball over and Subiaco can be a dangerous ground if you don't hit your targets.
For Fremantle it is counter attack and precision. They rank second for scores generated from the corridor, and second for goals scored once inside fifty.
For Hawthorn it's about controlling the stoppages and using their foot skills to great effect.
It is the latter that wins out for mine. Hawthorn have the more experienced bodies, and the greater spread of midfield options that are in form at the moment.
If Fremantle win this, they will play a final at the MCG for the first time in their history, and in many ways their season deserves that.
However the reality is despite the freshen up last week they are still vulnerable and Hawthorn have the ability to exploit that with their match hardened finals experienced group.
The Hawks will tee up a clash with either Geelong or St.Kilda in week two of the finals at the MCG.
A simply mouth watering prospect.
Hawthorn by 20 points
Fremantle 6th - 13-9 - 103.88%
Hawthorn 7th - 12-9-1 - 110.67%
Fremantle will host a final for the third time in their history this Saturday as they comfront the experienced and in form Hawks in a cut throat contest.
Hawthorn have eleven wins and a draw from their past fifteen matches which puts them amongst the very best teams in the competition since Round 7, whilst Fremantle have won just three times since Michael Barlow went down with injury but one of those wins was last week.
A hard fought win over the Blues last friday night probably served as vindication for Mark Harvey who was questioned by many for his decision to rest so many big guns the week before (ironically against Hawthorn) in the hope of freshening his side up for an assault on the Blues.
Harvey knew his team only needed to win one of the last two if they were to secure a home final and he didn't want to take the risk of a six day break coming back from Tasmania.
It is hard to argue with that logic, given the Dockers appeared to be tiring as the season went on, and that sort of road trip is probably the hardest there is when coming from Perth.
Aaron Sandilands demonstrated that he is probably the games most influential big man with a 20 posession, 40 hit out game that helped feed Morabito, Hill, Mundy and co who for a lot of the night ran ragged.
Fremantle had the pressure and the run and spread of the early parts of the season, they just didn't nail all of their chances and were a bit wasteful going forward. But on the whole it was an effort that should fill them with confidence.
The question is now, how do they fare against an experienced and hungry Hawthorn side that is in it's best form since winning the flag in 2008.
That Hawthorn side is coming off a stiring three point come from behind win over the ladder leaders Collingwood last week and will welcome Luke Hodge back into the side for this Saturday.
It's hard to gauge how much it meant to the Pies given they could not lose top spot, but it was a good win just the same.
Collingwood led by more then three goals half way through the last quarter so they had to come from a fair way back.
Lance Franklin was superb with six goals, and Cyril Rioli starred through the middle and up forward with 27 touches and two goals.
Roughead, Ellis, Burgoyne, Stratton and a host of others were all solid contributors and they will be looking for more of the same.
Subiaco hasn't been a happy hunting ground of recent times for Hawthorn, but usually it has been the Eagles that have given them most grief, they did beat Fremantle on their most recent meeting in Perth last year on a friday night.
The interesting match to look at is two weeks ago. Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 116 points in Launceston and Mark Harvey quipped that the game meant Freo had had a look at them, but the Hawks conversely hadn't seen any of what the real Dockers would look like.
That is probably clutching at straws but I like the sentiment in it. Harvey has had his war face on these past couple of weeks and the response has been good, they will need a similar response this week.
I think it best to just scrap that game from discussion, as Hawthorn are well aware that this Fremantle side will bear almost no resemblance to the one they faced so it's best they approach it is a blank canvas.
Hayden Ballantyne went down with another apparent stress fracture last week which will hurt, as he provides plenty of spark, but Des Headland is a man in the mix for selection and it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a crack given his experience.
On the other side, Hawthorn will almost certainly persist with Wade Skipper as it's second ruckmen. His mobility will be important on the big ground at Subiaco when trying to counteract Aaron Sandilands impact.
Hodge, Guerra, Young, Ellis, Burgoyne and co will provide plenty of run and precision off half back and despite their overall lack of pace, they have the skills and long kicking ability to exploit Fremantle over the back of their zone.
Carlton were able to shoot over the top of the zone defence and score goals in behind them much like Collingwood did earlier this year when they beat Fremantle.
You could also see it in their losses to St.Kilda and the Bulldogs in the second half of the year.
Fremantle are quick, but their zone can be broken down. Pace though is something they can use as a strength.
Hawthorn can be outrun in space if they turn the ball over and Subiaco can be a dangerous ground if you don't hit your targets.
For Fremantle it is counter attack and precision. They rank second for scores generated from the corridor, and second for goals scored once inside fifty.
For Hawthorn it's about controlling the stoppages and using their foot skills to great effect.
It is the latter that wins out for mine. Hawthorn have the more experienced bodies, and the greater spread of midfield options that are in form at the moment.
If Fremantle win this, they will play a final at the MCG for the first time in their history, and in many ways their season deserves that.
However the reality is despite the freshen up last week they are still vulnerable and Hawthorn have the ability to exploit that with their match hardened finals experienced group.
The Hawks will tee up a clash with either Geelong or St.Kilda in week two of the finals at the MCG.
A simply mouth watering prospect.
Hawthorn by 20 points
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)