MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW 2010

EXTENSIVE CUP PREVIEW FOR 2010



I will go through each horse in the cup field for tomorrow with some pros and cons about their chances and then ultimately I'll give my thoughts and tips at the end.


1. Shocking

Form: Been solid without luck for much of the campaign. Was 2nd in the Turnbull and ran a slashing last couple of hundred, just had no room for much of the straight. Same story in the Caulfield Cup when he flashed home for 4th.
Wasn't quite as sharp in the Mackinnon but tomorrow has always been his grand final.

Pros: Won the race last year, will definitely get the trip, and whilst his spring says only one win, he has shown nothing to indicate he won't be flying home strongly at the end and given the trip he could definitely swamp over the top of them.

Cons: Has drawn the outside barrier and has to carry a whopping 6kg's more then he did last year. He will also race against probably a slightly better field. So he has a few factors working against him in this one which will make life tough, but he always tends to defy what we expect.
Won from 22 last year, so 24 is not a huge backward step and a couple of possible scratchings might bring him in again to 21 or 22.

Strong horse a year older so maybe the weight isn't a huge issue.

Overall: Will need to run superbly and do it all right to swamp the likes of SYT on the straight but a previous winner with great turn of speed so he can definitely win it.
But I might take him on I reckon, few things against him in this one. Risky, but I'm leaving him alone.

2. Campanologist -

The flag ship for the unlucky Godolphin stable this year and could well do a crime scene from last year and scare the hell out of them.
They are yet to win this race despite numerous placings and whilst he may lack the class to get the job done overall, he might be a first four contender.

Pros: Has won 2 Group One's up to 2400, yet to win a major at this distance but can run it.
Barrier 19 shouldn't hurt him that much and has been timed to peak here after a much travelled campaign.

Cons: Is a bit inconsistent and temperamental (hope I spelt that correctly), best is very good, but can fluctuate. Although this most recent campaign has been fairly consistent. (Hasn't finished outside first 4 in last 6 starts).
Hasn't beaten quality overseas, but they come here because this is the best race, can it beat Shocking, So You Think, the gutsy Zipping etc ? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.

Overall: Genuine stayer with ability, don't think it will win, but first four or place roughie. Worth thinking about him.

3. So You Think

Form: Could not be better. Has won 5 starts in a row this campaign, four of those group ones and seems to do a little bit better each run, matures and adapts to conditions a little better every time. Cox Plate win was far to easy and then produced probably the best run of his career last Saturday to demolish a pretty good Mackinnon field.

Pros: Has answered every challenge put at him so far, and whilst this is a new benchmark again he has given every indication he can deal with it.
Unlike the Cox Plate he was pulling away in the Mackinnon and the doubts generated about his ability to stay that came out of the Plate would have dissipated a fair bit the other day.
Has amazing class and despite his occasionally flighty pre race motions, he does settle down well in his races.

Cons: Yet to run at 3200, in fact yet to run beyond 2040 so whilst his pedigree suggests he can do it, and his make up, you have to see it first before your convinced.
Also he will have a huge field to contend with, bit more congestion etc.
History - Only Phar Lap has won 2 Cox Plates and a Melbourne Cup, and only Phar Lap has won the Plate the Mackinnon and the Cup in 11 days so that's what he is being measured against. Many have failed at this task, can he succeed?

Overall: Yes he can. He is that good. Clearly the best horse in the race and if he relaxes early, doesn't encounter severe misfortune and can stay the trip. I don't think he can lose.
But in Melbourne Cups, anything can happen, and plenty has happened.

4. Zipping

FORM: Won the only two group ones of his long career this year and they were good races too (Australia Cup and Turnbull).
Evergreen horse who just fights and fights and fights.

PROS: Can stay, has proven that. Is in probably career best form as well.
We have seen him run well in this race in the past (back to back fourths in 2006 and 2007).
Remarkably ran in his first cup before So You Think was even foaled.
His second in the Cox Plate was a slashing run and he will guts it out to the end. In any other era who knows. This horse may have won a Melbourne Cup and a Cox Plate.

CONS: No 9 year old has ever won a Melbourne Cup, but he is a special horse.
Is as brave as they come, but may lack the genuine class to beat them all.

OVERALL: Absolute top 6 moral. Huge first four chance.

5. Illustrious Blue

Form: Been solid in lead up races in the UK. Has won at or around the distance a couple of times against slightly lesser company.
Will carry less weight then he has in a couple of years so will enjoy that.

Pros: Always good to look for horses you know can stay the trip. He can.
Low weights, slightly damp track they both work in his favour as well.

Cons: Has never raced in Australia. I dare say no- one has ever won a Melbourne Cup without racing in this country first. Will also face better oppositin.

Overall: Genuine smokey for a place. Bit of an unknown commodity as we have never seen him. But they aren't mucking around with him.

6. Mr Medici

FORM: Ran a tidy 6th in the Caulfield Cup and has solid form on the wet tracks. Yet to run at this distance though but been building ok.

PROS: Handles the weather and heavy track quite well. Has good solid overseas form and should improve a touch from Caulfield Cup run as it looked to have a bit in the tank.

Cons: Never run beyond 2400, and will face company that I think is at least as good as he is with maybe better credentials at distance.

Good jockey on board though and will be smart throughout.

OVERALL: Would need luck, probably look elsewhere.

7. Shoot out

FORM: Has been as solid as they come without winning. 4 thirds and 3 fourths in past seven starts. Great Cox plate run, very good at the weekend as well.

PROS: Doesn't do anything wrong when he races. The way he has finished each race this spring makes him look like a genuine stayer.
I have very little doubt he'll get the journey. Has a lot of class and speed and has raced competently against this company.

CONS: Sometimes I think he lacks the genuine grit to push past a horse who wants to fight him. Zipping for example has dug in twice against him and held him off. He needs to be able to push hard when the going is tough.

OVERALL: Consider him each way.

8. Americain

FORM: Cracking Geelong Cup win a while back when he didn't get a good run until very late. Beat an exceptional field that day and the race has form in terms of Cup lead ups.

PROS: Has won four on the trot, trackingly similar to Bauer two years ago. Has won twice back in France over 3000 metres and has taken to Aussie conditions with aplomb.
Carrying just 54 and a half KG's and has drawn well.

CONS: Will be the best quailty he has ever raced against in his career. And still just his second start in Australia.

OVERALL: Potential to be a major player. Consider him each way

9. Tokai Trick

FORM: Ran 13th in the Caulfield Cup but watching the race again he didn't go ridiculously hard.
Has won four times beyond 3000 and as long as 4000 back in Japan.

PROS: The Japanese horses famously smashed this race apart in 2006 and their staying races compare very very favourably with ours. He has genuine staying quality and should improve on that Caulfield Cup run in the slush.

CONS: At the wrong end of his career possibly. Again he'd have to be the first 9 year old to win, and his Aussie form is unconvincing.

OVERALL: Seeing the Japanese in the race again makes you look twice at him that's for sure, but not this time for mine.

10. Buccelati

FORM: Hasn't done much in Australia from 5 starts this campaign. Ran a solid 7th finishing ok in the Turnbull. Has won at distance up to Group 3 level.

PROS: Can run the trip, but hard to find a heck of a lot else for him. Pretty tough horse who will compete though.

CONS: Lacks a bit of genuine class and his preparation would suggest he should struggle. Finished at least 18 lengths behind Descerado in the Caulfield Cup and I doubt he can make that up in similar conditions.

OVERALL: Leave alone

11. Descerado

FORM: Excellent few weeks for the Gai Waterhouse horse. Couldn't have been more impressive in his Caulfield Cup win and ran a very good second to the superstar So You Think in the Mackinnon.

PROS: Will enjoy the extra distance, will enjoy the weather and he will also have little competition at the front. He likes to lead and there aren't any other obvious front runners to set him an uncomfortable tempo.
Barrier is near perfect too.

CONS: Was no match at all for SYT at the end of the Mackinnon so that is a worry. Aside from that not to many issues, although is yet to win beyond 2400.

OVERALL: One of the spring's form horses without a doubt. Can win at a pinch, and should be in the first half dozen.

12. Harris Tweed

FORM: Ran second in the Caulfield Cup to Descerado and was very solid. Has won at 2500 distance at Flemington this campaign as well.

PROS: Very good run in the Caulfield Cup, and also one of a few that likes the weather and track conditions he is likely to face.
Looks like he should get the trip as well as he ran a very tidy 5th in the Melbourne Cup last year.

CONS: Had a small bout of Colic last week which no doubt will knock him around. Key is recovery as his form was fine. Needs to maintain conditioning.

OVERALL: Top form in this race and recently. Most definitely in the mix.

13. Manighar

FORM: Has been challenging of late without winning. 3 5th's and 2 seconds in past five races.
Was good in the Caulfield Cup and has nice staying form back home.

PROS: Has won twice at 3200 in France, was good in the Caulfield Cup and you guessed it.....also doesn'd mind the wet ground.

CONS: Has lost to a number of these horses at or around this distance. Gutsy, might lack a bit of class but then again they have timed their run well in the past the Cumani's and maybe they have again.

OVERALL: I like him, but a few better ones in this race. Take him on maybe.

14. Master O'Reilly

FORM: Hasn't won since his 2007 Caulfield Cup triumph but has been solid in the majors since. Has run 4th in each of the last two Melbourne Cups. Was poor at Moonee Valley a week or so ago but you can possibly right that off.

PROS: Grand campaigner who has good form in this race and good form in the majors over the journey.
Likes to run on from the back and leaves himself a lot to do, but over this distance could be dangerous again.

CONS: Not as sharp as he was say a year ago and also had a bout of Colic this spring. Don't think he is quite good enough anymore but knows what he is doing in the majors.

OVERALL: Has the barrier of death at number 18 where no horse has ever won, he won't change that. But don't totally discount at long ends to scrape another 4th. Probably not this year though.

15. Monaco Consul

FORM: Wasn't great in the Turnbull, but was exceptional in the Caulfield Cup in these sort of conditions. The longer the race, the better he has been....

PROS: Has won a couple of derby's, been great in a Caulfield Cup and both of those form lines support him running very well tomorrow. Another mudlark as well.
Looks to be peaking as well.

CONS: Slight query perhaps over consistency this campaign and maybe against the absolute top shelf company but the good probably outweighs the bad.

OVERALL: In my first four. Think long and hard about this guy.

16. Profound Beauty

FORM: Finally we come to the first mare in the race. Ran a terrific 5th in 2008 as a four year old.
Has finished top two in five races this year. and has won many overseas staying races.

PROS: Super consistant and gutsy stayer who whilst up in weights from two years ago will stay only carry 54 which is definitely manageable.
Trainer has been a wonderful player here in the past.

CONS: Has had some slight injury and health niggles both back home and since arriving in Australia. Preparation has been ok, but not sensational.

OVERALL: I backed her to win this race after chatting with Dermot Weld about 10 months ago and I'm not dropping her just yet. Very good chance to do some damage in this race.
Consider her as you have to love a tough mare.

17. Zavite

FORM: Ran 9th in last year's Melbourne Cup when a lot more highly fancied. Has won two races at this distance in Adelaide and Auckland but not against anywhere near this company.

PROS: Is the definition of a stayer if ever there was one. Could run all day and should benefit from being here last year.

CONS: Form hasn't been flash at all and has struggled against this class. Hasn't placed in quite a while and whilst he will fight, he probably isn't quite there.

OVERALL: If it beats half of them home it's done well. Won't do much more then that.

18. Bauer

FORM: Has raced only twice in two years since running a desperately close second to Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
Improved last to fourth in those two races though and looked a lot sharper second time around.

PROS: Has run a slashing Melbourne Cup before and certainly has a lot of quality. If fit, will be dangerous.

CONS: Might not be fit. Is some chance to get scratched pre race due to a hoof complaint and it's preparation in 2008 was considerably better then it has been this time.

OVERALL: Probably not this time.

19. Holberg

FORM: Has won at Group 3 level over this distance and has a very solid staying record in the UK.
Yet to run in an Aussie Group 1 and hasn't won at this level anywhere.

PROS: Has done everything right over distance at lower levels and is ready to step up and have a crack. Stable aren't mucking around bringing him here and are super keen for a win.
Won't carry much weight either and went from 350-1 to 21-1 as soon as it got accepted.

CONS: Can it beat this class? Who knows and that must be a genuine query until we see it.

OVERALL: Sneaky chance, some smart cookies rate this horse a chance and who am I to argue.
It's a risky bet due to the unkown about it but ya never know. Worth maybe a place dable.

20. Precedence

FORM: Was beaten by Linton in the Herbert Power a few weeks back but was a bit unlucky. Came back and was super in winning at the Valley over 2500 on Cox Plate day.
Controversially received a 1.5kg penalty which is probably why he is here.
Has raced once at 3200m and came last in the Sydney Cup.

PROS: Pretty solid horse who has mixed some very good with very poor in it's career. Past 5 starts have been very solid though but might need to sharpen a touch. Carrying bugger all weight and will be the second of the Bart Cummings horses.

CONS: Record in only start at distance is awful but is clearly better then that.

OVERALL: History would say probably not, but this campaign might argue differently. I don't think he will figure that prominently but he is a dangerous one to take on. If you want to go with Bart you could do worse.

21. Red Ruler

FORM: Similar to Zavite. Seems to have been around for ages but has good distance form.
Has been raced sparingly of late which should help and despite the Yalumba result has had a fair run of results lately. Is a better chance then Zavite though I'd say.

PROS: Has beaten quality in the past, and run well over distance in the past and is fairly consistent. Nice turn of foot could have it close if lucky.

CONS: You know what you'll get from him, but might lack a bit of punch when push comes to shove at the end.

OVERALL: Could come home well and scare and odds will be nice, think about a first four but probably better options

22. Linton

FORM: Could not have been more impressive in the Herbert Power, and followed that up with a nice run in the Lexus. Typical Williams horse in that he is lightly run, but very sharp. Shades of efficient (not just because is grey).

PROS: Has class, and is fresh. I have been saying ever since the Herbert that he will probably win next year's Melbourne Cup and I still believe that. Although not without a chance this time even if he has some maturing to do. They are huge Melbourne Cup lead up races that he performed in so watch him closely.

CONS: Maluckyday skipped away from him Saturday which might be a little worry, but more distance might help.
Has drawn a pretty poor barrier but not a disaster.

OVERALL: Looks like a Melbourne Cup winner if ever I have seen one. Will it be this year? Maybe.

23. Once were wild

FORM: Set a sharp pace in the Lexus, and fought on very bravely to finish 3rd to Linton and Maluckyday who it faces again here.
Has finished close to the placings at the Geelong Cup as well, so is at home at the level, even if perhaps not quite good enough to beat them consistently.

PROS: Has lots of courage. Will fight very hard. His placings in the above mentioned races is a good form indicator and whilst he hasn't won, he has beaten some highly fancied horses over the journey

CONS: Hasn't won for a little while and will need to change strategyslightly from the Lexus as he won't win trying to charge out like that.. 3200 a query given the way it races I think.

OVERALL: Probably not this time, although the second mare in the race has some fight about her. Expect it to be up there for a while, but should have a few go past her at the end.

24. Maluckyday

FORM: One of the stories of the day to come out of Derby Day, was absolutely superb in winning the Lexus and the cat is out of the bag now with the inexperienced horse third favourite now for the Cup.
Has won 5 of last 6 races and has dominated his last three. Doing everything right.

PROS: Rapid rise for this horse. Highly rated by all involved, jockey included and his last 3 have been superb runs.

CONS: Lacks a bit of experience and will have to contend with a huge field and a bit of traffic.
Is not a certainty to run, although you'd think it would. The Hawkes camp understandably a bit cautious with their young star.

OVERALL: Justifiable third favourite. Can stay the trip, don't worry about that, will be coming hard at the end and is a chance.


MY TIPS

Winner: So You Think

Biggest dangers: Maluckyday, Monaco Consul, Profoud Beauty, Descerado, Shocking

First Four bet: Maybe Box 6 of them. But put Zipping in there somewhere with a combination of the above. He'll be there that's for sure.

3 roughies: Campanoligist, Illustrious Blue, Holberg. - Maybe a small dabble on them wouldn't hurt.

Preview- St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - First Preliminary Final

St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs - MCG- Saturday Night

Last week :

St.Kilda - Week Off
Western Bulldogs - defeated Sydney by 5 points 11.11.77 to 10.12.72

Much like Friday night's clash we are comfronted with some deja vu with the Saints and the Bulldogs meeting in a Preliminary Final for the second year in a row.

Like Geelong, these two teams have been regular features in the top four for the past three years and once again they are in the thick of the action at the pointy end of the season.

St.Kilda earned a week off on the back of a triumphant four point win over Geelong a fortnight ago, whilst the Bulldogs responded to a week of questions with a gutsy five point win over the in form Swans.

That win was even more special given they were five goals down nearing half time against a team gunning for six straight victories.

A lot is said about junk time goals, and the frustration coach's feel when their teams give up a major or two late in a quarter but few would be feeling that quite like Paul Roos.

With the game slipping away the Bulldogs snared two very quick goals in the last two minutes of the second quarter to cut the margin to 16 points and more importantly swing the momentum of the contest.

When Jarrod Grant goaled in the first minute of the third term the direction of the game had changed completely and the Bulldogs were able to work their way to a memorable victory and keep the premiership dream alive.

Hooper contributed one of those crucial second term goals amongst his modest five posession debut but he will hold his spot and could still be an x factor against the Saints on saturday night.

Dale Morris's inclusion is important given his recent battles with Nick Riewoldt, and it does take pressure off the sore and out of sorts Tom Williams as well as allowing Brian Lake to peel off and be third man in at a contest.

From Rounds 1-18 the Bulldogs had an average disposal efficiency of 68% the best in the competition, but since then they have averaged 61.5% which is the worst in the league. They will need to be sharp and precise in the face of St.Kilda's relentless pressure if they are to create enough chances to win this game.

Ryan Griffen is the main man for the Bulldogs in the middle in the absence of Adam Cooney and he has been superb in both finals.

His ability to deliver long and accurately, and also pop up for a couple of goals is something the Saints will need to curb.

Barry Hall is the potential match winner in this one though, and he has hurt the Saints on this stage in the past.

Last week he had 11 score involvements from the Bulldogs 22 shots which is a huge percentage and expect Zac Dawson to get first crack at him with Fisher, Gwilt and Blake other options.

The key for the Saints though is to peel off and get extra players at the contest but also to cut off the supply and lower the number of entries.

If they do that, the Bulldogs will struggle as they averaged just 59 points a game against the Saints in the last four meetings.

For St.Kilda last week saw them produce a match simulation hit out at Moorabbin to try to replicate a game like environment so they can stay sharp and avoid a slow start like they had in last year's Preliminary Final.

A slow start that night could easily have been costly, and the Bulldogs will get a major sniff if they start well again.

A fortnight ago the Saints were fantastic against the Cats and for much of the night looked like blowing them away.

The tide turned late which is credit to Geelong but St.Kilda appeared to find another level after a long home and away season the moment September began.

Stephen Milne played clearly his best final, Koschitzke started well and Nick Riewoldt ran hard all day to be a constant danger.

The midfield was superb for most of the night both offensively and through pressure going the other way so Ross Lyon will be looking for a repeat performance this week.

Stephen Baker was the big discussion point all week but once again it appears as if he will miss out.

He has been named first emergency which raises the mystery around a possible late change but one suspects Lyon is unlikely to play games and Bakes will have to prey the Saints get through and then train the house down in the hope of winning a spot in a Grand Final.

Geary, Steven and Armitage would be the next three in line for a game but the Saints have gone unchanged from the team that did the job against the Cats.

Defensively St.Kilda have conceeded less points then anyone else for the second year in a row and have also recorded the highest disposal efficiency in the competition this season.

That points to their tendency to control the tempo of games, keep the ball off their opponents and deny them inside fifty opportunities as well as free running ball.

St.Kilda have been the most efficient side going forward as well in the past five weeks in terms of retaining posession once inside fifty so the Bulldogs will need to replicate the pressure they applied in last year's Preliminary Final.

Zac Dawson I expect will get first crack at Barry Hall with Gwilt to play on Murphy if he goes forward.

Gilbert or Fisher might take Grant with Dempster perhaps likely to play on Brad Johnson.

Clinton Jones who normally tags Cooney might take Boyd or Cross this time in the engine room with Picken likely to play on Dal Santo or Montagna.

At the other end Morris should get Riewoldt, Lake to take Koschitzke with Harbrow on Milne and Adam Schneider another key match up.

On to the tip and most would know it is difficult to tip with anything other then my heart on this one but my head also tells me the Saints should have the answers in what will be a tight affair for most of the night.

The Bulldogs are a top four side, and have been for a long time and despite their apparent fitness issues will be a very hard side to beat.

They also possess the run and flair which at times has caused the Saints grief this year, most notably when they played Carlton and Essendon.

However I just feel with a near full strength side, their own drive to succeed in the wake of 2009 and the benefit of a week off the Saints will be too strong and should pull away late to book a berth in back to back grand finals.

Nothing is easy in preliminary finals, and this won't be either, but St.Kilda to prevail.

St.Kilda by 28 points

Preview- Collingwood vs Geelong - Second Preliminary Final

Collingwood vs Geelong - MCG- Friday Night

Last week: Collingwood - Week Off
Geelong - defeated Fremantle by 69 points 20.15.135 to 10.6.66

Well here we are! Crunch time in season 2010 for the competitions pace setters and the current reigning premiers.

For the third time in four years Geelong and Collingwood will meet in a Preliminary Final to earn the right at a shot at the ultimate glory.

The Cats have won the previous two meetings in september but the sides will meet under different circumstances this week.

Collingwood had the benefit of a week off whilst Geelong found themselves in unfamiliar territory with a cut throat final against Fremantle in the second week of September.

Predictably they took care of that game with a minimun of fuss and were able to run a few blokes into some form.

Joel Selwood and Brad Ottens benefited a lot from the extra run, and the Cats would have been pleased with how quickly they put the game to bed.

An eight goal first quarter took all the confidence out of the visiting team and the game was shot by the end of that first term.

Geelong had some scratchy moments from then on but in finals it's not about looking a million dollars, it's not about percentage or ladder positions, it is simply about progressing.

The Cats needed to beat Fremantle, and get into a Preliminary Final against the Pies without any fresh injuries and on that front it was mission accomplished so on we go to Friday night.

Podsiadly and Chapman did pick up niggles it's fair to say, but both are all clear and Geelong as a result had some interesting selection decisions to be made with the end result being no change.

Most of us expected Andrew Mackie to play, but the form of Harry Taylor is believed to be the reason that hasn't happened.

Geelong it has been said feel they need Tom Lonergan as a defensive re-inforcement if Harry Taylor is beaten by Travis Cloke, so as a result Mackie gets squeezed out.

Mark Blake was also in the mix to replace Hawkins if the side wanted to go with two specialist ruckmen as opposed to Hawkins as the second pinch hitting man.

Geelong are a high posession, efficient team but like everyone, consistent patterns emerge in their losses.

The Cats average 100 more posessions then their opponents when they win games this season, but when they have lost they averaged just nine more.

If you stifle their run, they are forced to find different avenues forward which takes them out of their comfort zone.

They are also the most efficient team in the comp once inside fifty, averaging a score from 55% of forward entries, and a goal from 31%.

They average on the whole 55 inside fifties a game, but when they met Collingwood a few weeks ago they had just 37.

Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier broke them down consistently accross half back and through the middle.

It is easier said then done though against this super Cats team, but the Pies know they now have the blue print.

For Collingwood, last week was about ironing out injury niggles, and sorting out the best 22 going forward for what they hope is a productive fortnight.

Two weeks ago they demolished the Bulldogs in a trademark Collingwood 2010 performance.

They were relentless with their pressure on the ball carrier particulary on the Bulldogs runners coming out of defence and were able to generate four or five scoring opportunities from the same forward thrust on consistent occasions.

They also restricted the Doggies to a disposal efficiency of 48% which is the second lowest ever recorded in the history of Champion Data.

Sharrod Wellingham's ankle was the concern to come out of that game, as well as perhaps Leon Davis's form but both will play this week.

Davis has been solid with his frontal pressure and has been contributing in other ways. He may not be hitting the scoreboard as much as he once did, but that's not what it is all about.

Wellingham provides another important midfield rotation so his fitness was a vital boost.

Simon Prestigiacomo however might end up being this year's Max Hughton with the veteran defender missing out to Nathan Brown at the selection table.

With Goldsack, Lockyer, Medhurst and a host of others available but not selected it is no surprise the Pies have been so dominant this season.

As mentioned above, the ability to tie the ball in the front half of the ground has been one of the cornerstones of Collingwood's rise this year.

They have averaged 44 points a game from turnovers in the front half of the ground which is 11 more then any other side this year, and the Cats will need to be clean if they are to punch through.

Collingwood average more inside fifties and more effective long kicks then any other team so the key for the Cats is to pressure the ball carrier, make them use the ball short and by hand, and if you do that you will restrict the entries and perhaps take them out of their own comfort zone.

Scarlett should take Dawes, with Taylor getting first crack on Cloke. Lonergan might get Brown when he pushes forward with the out of form Josh Hunt playing on Davis.

At the other end, Brown will take Mooney, Hawkins going forward will get Reid, Toovey will get Johnson I reckon and the match up on the small runners in attack is crucial.

Ling I think should tag Didak who is the real game breaker in the middle of the ground.
Aside from that I think Geelong are best served trying to turn it into a midfield shoot out, something they may fancy their chances with.

On to the tip, and I think the subtle benefits sit with the Pies in what is a very even contest.

Geelong are a magical team, but when these sides have met previously in September the Cats have been a clear cut above the Pies, have had the week off and a settled line up.

This time the Pies have been every bit as good, they have the week off, and they have less selection headaches.

Geelong have had to do it the hard way, and would have had some serious questions in regards to the make up of the best 22.

I also back the pressure sides in finals, and Hawthorn of 08, and the present day St.Kilda and Collingwood sides have been the best in recent times at pressuring the opposition. All three of those teams have given the Cats grief of late.

Collingwood have the blue print, they have the confidence the form and the right personnel to take this one.

And come 10:30 friday night, they will have a berth in a Grand Final as well.

Collingwood by 10 points

Preview- Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - First Semi Final

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney - MCG -Saturday Night

Last week: Western Bulldogs lost to Collngwood by 62 points 8.14.62 to 17.22.124
Sydney defeated Carlton by five points 14.15.99 to 13.16.94

The curtain will come down on the career of one of the modern era's finest players regardless of the outcome this Saturday night in what is a fascinating semi-final clash.

The in form Swans venture to Melbourne to face the talented yet stumbling Bulldogs for a place in a preliminary final against the Saints.

Either Brad Johnson or Brett Kirk will bid farewell to the game on Saturday night depending on the result so emotions will no doubt be at a high.

The Brett Kirk departure is something we have known about for a while, whilst Brad Johsnon made the seemingly inevitable decision earlier this week after a year in which it has been apparent his body is failing him.

Johnson has been one of the game's most brilliant and durable players but he is evidence of just how quickly the end can come for a player, and it is a timely reminder to his teammates about how important it is to take every opportunity that is presented to you during your career.

The Bulldogs have one last chance to win a flag for their wonderful skipper and that will no doubt be in the back of every player's mind this week and potentially over the next couple.

I think it was evident in their opponents last week. Sydney were in all sorts of trouble early in the last term against Carlton but simply refused to get beaten and willed themselves over the line.

Admittedly they had some good fortune as well, with the Blues squandering three or four massive chances when they had the game at their mercy but Sydney were still able to turn the tide in the middle and start to win the majority of stoppages around the ground in the closing fifteen minutes.

The Bulldogs need to take note of how Sydney won that game. It was through stoppage control and contested ball, an area the Bulldogs usually excel at, but not right at the moment.

From Rounds 1-19, the Bulldogs were the best contested ball team in the competition, beating their opponents by an average of 12 every game. In the four matches since, they have lost this stat by an average of 21 a game, ranked last.

The Bulldogs are also the game's number one clearance team this season but come up against a Swans side that conceeds less direct clearances then anybody else so the contrasting styles will be evident.

Sydney got hold of the Bulldogs a few weeks ago in a big way, but the Doggies had won the previous four matches between these teams and they'd be wise to check out the earlier meeting this year in Canberra.

An example of that is the previous mentioned contested ball stats. In Round 8, the Bulldogs won this stat by 24, the worst record by the Swans in a game this season. In Round 21, the Swans won it by 28, the best record in a game this season.

The Bulldogs pace and running capacity has often hurt the Swans and they need to go back to doing the things they do well, including contested ball.

All sorts of questions remain such as can they do it with some key players out? Overall do they have enough spark to take them on, and can they break the Sydney stranglehold?

My mind has gone either way on all of these and it promises to be such an intriguing game.

Shaun Higgins will miss the remainder of what has been a frustrating season as he battles a thyroid problem, whilst Adam Cooney remains sidelined for the season.

Dale Morris is believed to be an outside chance to play in the Preliminary Final if the Bulldogs progress which would be good news for the group, and young Andrew Hooper will become the first debutant in a final since Paul Spargo in 1985.

He should provide some pace and flair in the front half of the ground and also an unknown x factor for the swans coaching staff to consider.

For Sydney veteran Daniel Bradshaw and the gutsy Ben McGlynn will return to the side giving them an injection of aggression and experience.

McGlynn has been superb this season and has in many ways been a barometer for them, whilst Bradshaw started the season so well prior to injury but provides them with a real target in attack to help straighten them up.

Keiran Jack, Hannebry, McVeigh, Goodes, Bolton and Kirk all provide clearance strength and then the outside runners off half back Malceski, Shaw and Kennelly provide the class and flair for the Swans to help give them the right mix to be dangerous against any side.

Last week they were in trouble when the Blues moved the ball quickly. Their defence has been solid, but without Bolton and Roberts Thompson can be stretched when the ball is moved long and direct, but they aren't alone on that front.

The Bulldogs have the weaponry to make life difficult for them here as well, but Sydney are close to the best nullifiers in the comp in terms of restricting run, clearances and clean disposal.

On the bigger grounds though it is harder to do, and they have lost all three matches at the MCG this year (although two by less then a goal).

The key for the Bulldogs is to open it up and run, the key for the Swans is to generate stoppages and slow the tempo down, get it on their terms more to the point.

This is a genuine flip of the coin game. Two sides with contrasting styles, with plenty of motivation and the lure of a preliminary final.

History says the Bulldogs, as only one top four side has gone out in straight sets since the revised top four format in the year 2000 (eagles in 07), but like the Eagles that season, the Bulldogs are nursing some injuries and are facing a team in form at the right time.

Pound for pound, the Bulldogs are more skillful, have more firepower and accross the board are better.

But this Swans team is playing as well as they have all year, and are just so disciplined and determined it's hard to pick against them.

But like the Pies last year, and the Bulldogs in recent times they will find another leg and drag themselves over the line this week in a close, tense game of footy.

Another preliminary final awaits the winner, and for some reason, I'm going Doggies just.

Bulldogs by 2 points

Preview- Geelong vs Fremantle - Second Semi Final

Geelong vs Fremantle - MCG - Friday Night

Last week: Geelong lost to St.Kilda 11.13.79 to 12.11.83 in Qualifying Final
Fremantle defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94 to 8.16.64 in Elimination Final

Geelong enter unfamiliar territory this week as they try to win a third flag in four years the hard way by playing four consecutive finals.

Fremantle on the other hand won a final for just the second time in the club's history with a polished and professional performance against a Hawthorn side that many expected would do some damage this September.

Geelong's place in the semi finals was brought about by a somewhat surprising four point loss to St.Kilda after they had trailed by nearly six goals half way through the third quarter.

The fact they very nearly pinched the game (save for an obvious and clear push in the back) speaks volumes of them as a side as they were staring down the barrell of a belting during that third term.

Selwood was very quiet in the first half, whilst Taylor and Hunt and even Scarlett were taken to the cleaners in the first half.

Gary Ablett was once again well tagged by Clinton Jones, but loomed as a constant danger in the second half and threatened to take the game away.

Paul Chapman recovered from a bruising bump from Lenny Hayes to be close to the Cats best, and kicked a crunch goal from a tight angle in the last quarter as others missed chances around him.

We are hearing that Andrew Mackie and Mark Blake are in the gun selection wise this week, and whilst one of those makes sense, the other doesn't.

Mark Blake or Tom Hawkins were always going to be vulnerable given the likely return of Podsiadly who just structures them up better.

Podsiadly is the most conventional forward of their big men and the question was whether they drop Blake and go with Hawkins as second ruck, or vice versa.

Against Aaron Sandilands, who will beat you in the tap outs regardless the key is mobility, and that's where Hawkins is going to offer much more around the ground.

Andrew Mackie on the other hand would be the wrong move. Yes put him under the grill, fire him up, but don't drop him.

Form aside, this is September, and you aren't winning flags without your best 22 up and about.

Challenge him to find form in the seniors, if you drop him, he's not going to get a kick there is he?

It's a catch 22. You don't want to play blokes out of form, but Geelong would struggle big time to win a flag without Mackie in the team and playing well.

For Fremantle last week was a further vindication of events a few weeks back in Tasmania.

Freshened up, the troops rolled Carlton (albeit just) to secure a home final and then faced a return bout with the side that tore them apart in Launceston back in Round 21 to the tune of 116 points.

The new look Dockers (or perhaps old look Dockers) controlled their Elimination Final from the get go and always appeared to have too much running depth and spread of class for the Hawks who no doubt felt the pinch of losing Rioli, and to a certain extent Ellis very early in the game.

The writing was on the wall though prior to that, and although it was only early, it looked as if Fremantle would have their measure.

David Mundy was best on ground, and whilst this week has brought the signature of the most prized man of all Matthew Pavlich, they are now super eager to secure Mundy's with a few Victorian clubs very much circling, namely the Bombers.

Sandilands has been the big focus all week, the big fella hurt a knee last week and spent most of the match in attack and they will need him fit and firing this week.

For Fremantle to win the game, Sandilands has to totally dominate in the centre bounces and probably be best on ground.

If he can't ruck to his usual extent, it puts pressure on Michael Johnson, and perhaps even Alex Silvagni who would be better served in a defensive post.

Adam Mcphee could potentially tag Ablett with pace being the obvious issue in that match up. Selwood and co in the middle won't be too keen to allow themselves to lower their colours again so the likes of Pavlich and Mundy hold such importance. Mcphee as well.

This is where the problem may sit for Fremantle. Yes they have pace and flair and skill which makes them dangerous, but if push comes to shove I think at this stage they lack the physical maturity to go with Geelong's match hardened finals bodies.

Selwood, Chapman, Ablett, Bartel, Kelly, Corey etc vs Mundy, Pavlich, Fyfe, Morabito, Hill, DeBoer.

Class no doubt, but the experience and clearance presence drops away.

The MCG factor won't be signficant to the result in my opinion as the lack of familiarity will be countered by the excitement factor and I also believe the Docker's style in many ways suits the ground.

Fremantle need to dominate the ruck, and then open the game up, spread from the contest, reduce the number of stoppages and just run like hell.

Geelong are a fast efficient side themselves and will probably win a shoot out anyway, but if the game becomes tight and in close I think Geelong could monster them.

Fremantle deserve undoubted respect for all they have done this year, and they deserve to be in the second week of September.

Whatever happens from here, they are one of the success stories of 2010 and should have a very bright future over the next three to four years.

A first ever MCG final, and a top four spot for most of the year is a huge tick, and they need to take this game on as an exciting opportunity.

If they play with freedom and agression they could make it a contest, but I doubt they can do much more at this stage.

They have not won an away game since Round 13, and Geelong are on the rebound and showed some ominous signs after half time last week.

Defensively Geelong can limit the damage, although the order of the day for Fremantle is running goals, back themselves from long range and attack the sticks rather then trying to pinpoint to leading options.

The problem with that is Fremantle's skill level is not the same as Geelong's and they could get hurt badly if they turn it over.

In attack, the Cats spread of talent has a bit too much class for the undermanned Fremantle defence and overall they boast superior depth in all areas bar perhaps the ruck.

Fremantle need to be brave and bold, but this Cat's machine is not going out in straight sets.

Too much class, too much poise, too much experience and the dream will stay alive for the Cats who will set up the mother of all blockbusters against the Pies next week.

Geelong by 47 points

Preview - Sydney vs Carlton - Elimination Final

Sydney vs Carlton - ANZ Stadium - Sunday

Sydney 5th - 13-9-108.27%
Carlton 8th - 11-11 - 108.07%

Week one of the finals will conclude on Sunday with the in form Swans taking on a Carlton side entering back to back finals campaigns.

Last year Carlton experienced september heartbreak at the hands of the Brisbane Lions after leading by five goals early in the last quarter before being overrun.

Many clubs have been linked to some pain as motivation and Carlton are one that must surely carry that in the back of their minds.

The Blues are still on a journey, a journey that began as many as eight years ago when they bottomed out and lost draft picks and had to start a slow and painful rebuild.

Last year that climb finally got them back into the eight, and the next step is to win a final and these Blues on their day posess the tools to do so.

They will enjoy the fact this game is at ANZ Stadium as opposed to the SCG, as the smaller cricket ground does not suit their fast run and spread game.

Sydney are the masters at bottling up the space at the SCG and taking control of the stoppages, on the wider expanses of ANZ Stadium it is generally more difficult for Sydney to execute their style effectively and they boast a less then 50% winning record at the ground.

Carlton need to create space over the back of the contest like they did early and late against Fremantle last week.

In the first and last terms they backed their legs, ran hard and kicked long which broke over the back of Fremantle's rolling zone and created a lot of easy goals in space.

Sydney execute a more disciplined defensive press then Fremantle, but they do lack genuine leg speed in some crucial areas.

Basically this is a game that represents two sides with contrasting stryles so it promises to be a fascinating battle.

For Sydney, the last month has been a real triumph for the wonderful partnership between the departing Paul Roos and his troops.

Ever since that inexplicable Melbourne capitulation the Swans have returned to their trademark pressure, intensity and consistent spread of contributions.

Last week was a fantastic workmanlike victory in which they weathered the best Brisbane could throw at them, and then took control and went away impressively after half time.

Keiran Jack's class and poise is superb and he is the next generation of elite Sydney midfielders post the Brett Kirk/Jude Bolton era.

Malceski, McVeigh, Rhys Shaw and co all provided plenty of run, and in the absence of Craig Bolton the likes of Grundy and Richards have slipped into defence and provided a rock solid combination.

The amazing part about Sydney is the ability of players to slip in, find their niche and turn into very good players.

Mike Pyke is the classic example of that, he is one of the competitions most improved players this season and if Mumford plays, they loom as a potentially decisive duo.

Sydney have won 121 more stoppage first posessions this year which is second only to the Bulldogs, and they are the third highest scoring team from this stat this season.

Carlton conversely concede the second most points from stoppage first posessions and have trouble with teams that score from fast breaks, turnovers, rebounds etc as defensively their midfield can struggle.

For what we have said about the bigger ground, statistically their is evidence to suggest it might not help the Blues as much as first thought.

Carlton's disposal efficiency last week was 71%, their worst of the year, and if they repeat that they might get opened up too much the other way, much like what the Dockers did in quarters two and three.

Carlton's effectiveness going forward in the past month has dropped away as well, they average a mark from just 20% of inside fifties ranked 14th in that time, and they must take their chances against the ultra competitive Swans.

In a game of contrasting styles I like the Swans a lot in this one. Carlton deserve respect no doubt for their skill, fast ball movement and dangerous crumbing forwards, but Sydney have the tools to shut them down.

With a host of clearance players in form, dangerous rebounding half backs and one of the games most dynamic players in Adam Goodes I can see the Swans taking this one and progressing to the second week.

It would mean another september date at the MCG for Paul Roos before his swansong. And you just wonder how far his might take things season.

That journey into excitement will start on Sunday.

Sydney by 23 points

Preview- Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - Qualifying Final

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - MCG - Saturday Night

Collingwood 1st - 17-4-1 - 141.68%
Western Bulldogs 4th - 14-8 - 125.37%

Collingwood and the Bulldogs will clash on Saturday Night for the opportunity to have a week off and host a preliminary final.

The fortunes of the two sides have been heading in opposite directions in recent weeks, but that doesnt change the fact they have both qualified for the top four on the back of the season as a whole so Collingwood will no doubt be very cautious when assessing the wounded Bulldogs.

Collingwood despite a narrow win and a loss to Hawthorn in the past fortnight will enter September chock full of confidence an in the midst of the reality of what is their best premiership chance since the ill fated Brisbane double in 2002/2003.

Josh Fraser has made way this week as expected bringing back Leigh Brown who has enjoyed a super season for the Magpies but Tyson Goldsack was probably a surprise omission.

The Bulldogs aren't the tallest forward line in the world so that probably explains why, but he would have still provided an option for either Hahn or Grant in defence.

Paul Medhurst sadly is in the same boat as Josh Fraser I suspect, in that neither are likely to play AFL Football for Collingwood again, barring some unforeseen injuries in this finals campaign.

Once again if you were to find an issue for Collingwood in recent weeks it would have to be accuracy.

This time they had seven more shots then Hawthorn and a lost, a week earlier they had eight more shots then Adelaide and got home by three points and there is no doubt this is a concern.

Collingwood overwhelm sides through weight of numbers, and simply generate so many inside fifties and so many scoring chances that they are able to produce a winning score regardless, but in finals when scoring becomes tougher, the contest becomes that little bit fiercer, you wonder how many times they can get away with it.

Collingwood average 12 more contested posessions, 14 more tackles and 12 more inside fifties a game then their opponents this year which ranks number one in all three areas which suggests they overwhelm sides through pressure and the volume of entries to the point where it is nearly impossible to keep them out.

For the Bulldogs, last week was an expected and professional win highlighted by the six goal haul to young emerging forward Jarrod Grant.

Ryan Griffen pulled up lame with a knee injury and despite being named, he remains the big mystery ahead of this match.

He will undergo last minute fitness tests and if he is a late withdrawal, the Bulldogs lose arguably their classiest midfield finisher on top of the absence of Cooney and Morris.

Dale Morris is structurally their most important player as he takes the opposition's best forward each week and in the process releases Lake, Hargrave and co to peel off and play loose at any given time.

Harbrow and Gilbee remain the keys when trying to stop this team, the run they provide off half back and the precision they use by foot makes them the most dangerous team in the competition skill wise when in form.

Expect Sidebottom or Ball to get an offensive job on one of them, but the job will be made easier by the fact Gilbee may need more midfield time due to no Cooney, and one or both may have to play more accountable roles without Morris.

That is part of the roll on problem losing these players poses for Rodney Eade.

Shaun Higgins will come back in and he is very much the x factor in this line up. A classy kid who can play forward and midfield, he just needs a sustained run of fitness to assert himself.
He has not been able to have that at any stage of his career so far.

Collingwood are the competitions best tackling team, and the Bulldogs statistically are the worst averaging just 61 a game.

The Bulldogs are also the poorest side accross the last month at turning inside fifties into scores averaging a score with just 39% of their entries.

Collingwood's pressure on the ball carrier has dismantled the Bulldogs twice at Etihad this year, but strangely enough the Dogs may welcome the more space on offer at the somewhat unfamiliar MCG.

However that won't be enough for mine. The Bulldogs will be brave, and are a worthy and dangerous top four foe that could make like difficult for Collingwood, but these Pies are primed and ready for this clash and should get it done.

With a spread of midfield runners, an in form defensive unit and a potent and lively attack the Pies will march into a Preliminary Final and play the Saints or the Cats.

Collingwood by 27 points

Preview- Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Elimination Final

Fremantle vs Hawthorn - Subiaco - Saturday



Fremantle 6th - 13-9 - 103.88%

Hawthorn 7th - 12-9-1 - 110.67%



Fremantle will host a final for the third time in their history this Saturday as they comfront the experienced and in form Hawks in a cut throat contest.



Hawthorn have eleven wins and a draw from their past fifteen matches which puts them amongst the very best teams in the competition since Round 7, whilst Fremantle have won just three times since Michael Barlow went down with injury but one of those wins was last week.



A hard fought win over the Blues last friday night probably served as vindication for Mark Harvey who was questioned by many for his decision to rest so many big guns the week before (ironically against Hawthorn) in the hope of freshening his side up for an assault on the Blues.



Harvey knew his team only needed to win one of the last two if they were to secure a home final and he didn't want to take the risk of a six day break coming back from Tasmania.



It is hard to argue with that logic, given the Dockers appeared to be tiring as the season went on, and that sort of road trip is probably the hardest there is when coming from Perth.



Aaron Sandilands demonstrated that he is probably the games most influential big man with a 20 posession, 40 hit out game that helped feed Morabito, Hill, Mundy and co who for a lot of the night ran ragged.



Fremantle had the pressure and the run and spread of the early parts of the season, they just didn't nail all of their chances and were a bit wasteful going forward. But on the whole it was an effort that should fill them with confidence.



The question is now, how do they fare against an experienced and hungry Hawthorn side that is in it's best form since winning the flag in 2008.



That Hawthorn side is coming off a stiring three point come from behind win over the ladder leaders Collingwood last week and will welcome Luke Hodge back into the side for this Saturday.



It's hard to gauge how much it meant to the Pies given they could not lose top spot, but it was a good win just the same.



Collingwood led by more then three goals half way through the last quarter so they had to come from a fair way back.



Lance Franklin was superb with six goals, and Cyril Rioli starred through the middle and up forward with 27 touches and two goals.



Roughead, Ellis, Burgoyne, Stratton and a host of others were all solid contributors and they will be looking for more of the same.



Subiaco hasn't been a happy hunting ground of recent times for Hawthorn, but usually it has been the Eagles that have given them most grief, they did beat Fremantle on their most recent meeting in Perth last year on a friday night.



The interesting match to look at is two weeks ago. Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 116 points in Launceston and Mark Harvey quipped that the game meant Freo had had a look at them, but the Hawks conversely hadn't seen any of what the real Dockers would look like.



That is probably clutching at straws but I like the sentiment in it. Harvey has had his war face on these past couple of weeks and the response has been good, they will need a similar response this week.



I think it best to just scrap that game from discussion, as Hawthorn are well aware that this Fremantle side will bear almost no resemblance to the one they faced so it's best they approach it is a blank canvas.



Hayden Ballantyne went down with another apparent stress fracture last week which will hurt, as he provides plenty of spark, but Des Headland is a man in the mix for selection and it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a crack given his experience.



On the other side, Hawthorn will almost certainly persist with Wade Skipper as it's second ruckmen. His mobility will be important on the big ground at Subiaco when trying to counteract Aaron Sandilands impact.



Hodge, Guerra, Young, Ellis, Burgoyne and co will provide plenty of run and precision off half back and despite their overall lack of pace, they have the skills and long kicking ability to exploit Fremantle over the back of their zone.



Carlton were able to shoot over the top of the zone defence and score goals in behind them much like Collingwood did earlier this year when they beat Fremantle.



You could also see it in their losses to St.Kilda and the Bulldogs in the second half of the year.



Fremantle are quick, but their zone can be broken down. Pace though is something they can use as a strength.



Hawthorn can be outrun in space if they turn the ball over and Subiaco can be a dangerous ground if you don't hit your targets.



For Fremantle it is counter attack and precision. They rank second for scores generated from the corridor, and second for goals scored once inside fifty.



For Hawthorn it's about controlling the stoppages and using their foot skills to great effect.



It is the latter that wins out for mine. Hawthorn have the more experienced bodies, and the greater spread of midfield options that are in form at the moment.



If Fremantle win this, they will play a final at the MCG for the first time in their history, and in many ways their season deserves that.



However the reality is despite the freshen up last week they are still vulnerable and Hawthorn have the ability to exploit that with their match hardened finals experienced group.



The Hawks will tee up a clash with either Geelong or St.Kilda in week two of the finals at the MCG.



A simply mouth watering prospect.



Hawthorn by 20 points

Preview - Geelong vs St.Kilda - Qualifying Final

Geelong vs St.Kilda - MCG - Friday Night

Geelong 2nd - 17-5 - 147.94%
St.Kilda 3rd - 15-6-1 - 121.62%

For the third year in a row the Cats and the Saints will clash in September, and once more it will be as top four sides and genuine contenders.

Geelong enter this finals campaign as the reigning premiers keen to write their own place in history amongst the games immortals with a third flag in four years.

For St.Kilda it's all about vindication, and finishing the job theycame agonisingly close to achieving last year.

It was of course Geelong that denied them on that cold and wet afternoon in late september and just how much of a motivation that pain will serve remains to me seen.

It will be a factor though at least on the mindset of the players, but the game should not be won or lost on that.

The Cats are the highest scoring team in the competition and boast superstars on every line.
Another seven players nominated for All Australian, another 114 points averaged each week and possibly another Brownlow Medal for Gary Ablett who despite his occasional critics (there are some), he has had statistically in some ways a better year then last.

He has gone forward and kicked 40 plus goals for the season as well as still maintaining an average of over 30 posessions a game.

There isn't a midfielder in the land that has a season cv comparable to that, even Dane Swan who whilst similar in disposals, has kicked 25 less goals.

The Brownlow is probably a race between those two and we know Gary can poll, and you should be able to guarantee he will finish with three votes for last weeks effort.

With Podsiadly still suspended, Geelong can settle on their big man situation with Hawkins in attack with Mooney, and Mark Blake sharing the ruckload with Brad Ottens. Basically their formula circa the last two years.

Ling will tag Dal Santo, whilst Ablett might draw Clinton Jones for company as he has in the last three meetings between these teams.

Last time these sides met, Geelong went goalless in the entire second half, their worst performance in over a decade.

You can slot names like Chapman, Ottens, Kelly, Corey, Hawkins and a couple of others back into the side so they will be much stronger this time and keen to atone from that earlier defeat at the hands of one of their modern rivals.

Geelong's run and spread game started to find its feet in the second half last week and it is fair to say the Cats very much had an eye on this friday night's clash.

The Saints also had an eye on this game and that was clear by the way they chipped the ball around in the closing minutes rather then attacking the game flat out.

Momentum was with the Crows and St.Kilda affectively put the que in the rack and started preparing for the first final.

This can often be an awkard factor when a side essentially has nothing to play for, and that is taking nothing away at all from Adelaide who all day looked the better side.

From the last time these sides met St.Kilda can welcome back Nick Riewoldt and Jason Gram and this will also be the first time Steven Baker has played since that imfamous friday night where he copped a farcical nine week suspension for something seen at least twenty times since accross the subsequent rounds. (Perhaps the inner saint coming out)

St.Kilda's defence remains the cornerstone of it's chances. They conceed just 44 nside fifties a game which ranks number one in the AFL, and also give up a score on just 45% of those occasions which is the second best defensive record in the competition this year.

Contested ball is important as well, St.Kilda won the contested ball count against the Cats earlier this year and it was the first time they had beaten them in that stat for four years.

As a result they were able to control the tempo as St.Kilda statistically are the best team in the AFL by foot.

Zac Dawson may get Mooney with Fisher likely now to play, and possibly take Hawkins. Baker will get Johnson, and Chapman who has imfamously broken Saint hearts in recent times might draw a Dempster for company.

At the other end Harry Taylor will renew hostilities with Nick Riewoldt, Lonergan might get Kozi, with Scarlett rolling off onto a medium and perhaps trying to hurt them on the rebound.

Josh Hunt should get Milne, whilst Mackie or Enright might go to Schneider who killed them earlier this season.

David Armitage is an interesting one. St.Kilda need to make three changes with Baker, Schneider and Milne to return and he would be one player who is probably in strife but his ability to win the contested ball on what is likely to be a wet night could be significant.

This promises to be another cracking contest that should once again go down to the wire.
Weather conditions will be similar to the last two times these sides have met, and expect a similar game.

St.Kilda controlled the tempo in both of those and it's a matter of class vs defense not to take too many niceties away. Geelong's ability to break it open and create scoring bursts vs St.Kilda's ability to control the tempo will be the decisive battle.

With pain as an extra motivation, and the lure of a likely Grand Final berth for the winner, the Saints squeeze them just.

St.Kilda by 6 points

Preview - Brisbane vs Sydney - Gabba - Round 22

Brisbane vs Sydney - Gabba - Saturday Night

Brisbane 13th - 7-14 - 93.19%
Sydney 5th - 12-9 - 106.46%

One of the competitions form sides will head north of the border this weekend in the hope of securing a home final.

The Sydney Swans have been in super form over the past three weeks and will enter September confident of doing some damage if they can maintain their current tempo.

For the Lions the last three weeks have been a lot better, two wins and a tight loss as some system and structure starts to return to the fold.

Jonathan Brown's 200th game last week was the perfect tonic for the group and the gutsy champion produced a vintage performance taking 16 marks accross half forward.

He ended up with 4.6 but the impact he has on his team goes beyond the stat sheet and as he finally succumbs to injury in 2010 you can guarantee it will hurt his team immensely.

Rockliff, Redden, Banfield, Harwood and Leunberger continue to develop nicely for the Lions but it is imperative they don't lose all of Brennan, Rischitelli and Drummond with all suggested as possible players looking for a new home.

It appears almost certain Brennan will go, and Drummond is keen to stay, the Lions just cannot meet his pay demands whilst Rischitelli has had a ripper season and they would be keen to secure his signature.

For the Swans last week was another triumph in the partnership of Paul Roos and Brett Kirk with a gutsy home win over quality opposition.

Together they have symbolised what has been a wonderful era for this proud club and you cannot help but admire the way the Sydney Swans go about things.

With Bradshaw and Bolton a chance to return early in September you wonder which path Roos might go down, given he would be taking a risk to select them with hardly any footy under their belt, yet at the same time he'd be well aware of the importance these blokes hold to their structure.

You must also factor in that O'Keefe and Mcglynn didn't play either and Mumford went down early in the game so it was an excellent victory.

This week though the Swans have few concerns with all the injury and selection issues located up north in the mind of Michael Voss.

Without Brown it's hard to picture Brisbane breaking through the strong defensive zone that Sydney applies often enough to win the game.

Sydney are aslo a wonderful stoppage team and should restrict them enough firstly, and then exploit the sometimes loose Lions runners.

Sydney by 17 points

(Match preview cut short due to my flu battle...apologies )

Preview - Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Round 22

Richmond vs Port Adelaide - Etihad Stadium - Sunday

Richmond 15th - 6-15 - 71.97%
Port Adelaide 10th - 9-12 - 80.91%

The curtain will come down for one of the modern era's finest players this Sunday with Ben Cousins bowing out on his own terms.

With the release of the documentary this week the 2005 Brownlow Medalist has been the talk of the town and make no mistake he will play this week despite the words coming out of the club.

For his Richmond side it is the chance to put a final full stop on what has been an ultimately positive season in which they have exceeded the expectations of almost everyone.

For Port Adelaide it is the chance to continue their ressurection on season 2010 and produce a fifth win from six starts.

Matthew Primus will coach Port Adelaide next year there is little doubt about that, and so he should given his recent results.

Port Adelaide's season was spiralling out of control at Round 15 but since then with the exception of a horrendous defeat to St.Kilda at Etihad Stadium the Power have been very impressive.

Admittedly all four of their victories have come at Aami Stadium but it's been the hunger and commitment that has really stood out.

Matthew Primus would be eager to win a game on the road though and if they do they could conceivably finish as high as 9th which would be a fair recovery.

Brett Ebert this week successfully underwent LARS surgery on his badly damaged knee but his absence will rob them off some firepower no doubt, but with Jay Schulz eager to perform against his old side, Westhoff and Grey in form they still have the tools to kick a winning score.

In the last six weeks Port Adelaide have averaged just 46 Inside fifties a game which ranks last yet they have won four of those games which suggests a new efficiency in their playing style.

They have also won the inside fifty count just three times from their nine interstate trips this year which further emphasises that trend.

Last week they scored 71 points directly from Melbourne turnovers which was their best differential this season and Richmond can be sloppy by foot so they will be looking to hurt them at all times.

For Richmond, last week was a pleasing performance despite the 21 point loss to St.Kilda and they would have been particularly happy with their ability to hurt the Saints on the counter attack, and the fact they maintained the pressure all day.

Even when St.Kilda opened up a 37 point buffer in the final term the Tigers kept coming and had the last six scoring shots of the game.

They scored ten goals from St.Kilda turnovers and they also recorded their highest disposal efficiency of the season in what was a strangely open game.

Both sides played quite a free flowing style and it suited Richmond's style down to the ground.

This year Richmond rank third for tackles, third for clearances but last for disposal efficiency so if they can sharpen up then the results should start to come.

It is easier said then done though and I'm sure Hardwick is aware of the work required and won't be getting ahead of himself by any means.

Daniel Jackson will miss again with injury but the inclusion of Trent Cotchin was really positive last week with his class around the stoppages so crucial.

He kicked two very nice goals and used the ball sublimely and his assistance at the stoppages for Cousins, Tuck, Martin and co is so important.

If you add a fit Jackson and Foley to that group it's no surprise as to why there are so many wraps on their midfield.

Then there's Ben Cousins. The story about his second chance at football is about far more then sport, it's about potentially saving his life and reaching out for him in his time of need.

A guy that gave the game so much was brought back into the footballing family at his time of need and if you hear from Ben and his father Bryan in that documentary you get an understanding for how significant it was that they gave him that lifeline.

He will forever hold a special love for the Richmond football club and that will be a telling factor on Sunday.

His teammates have a wonderful repour with him and he has taught them plenty over the two years.

Whilst the partnership maybe not have been immensely successful on field in terms of wins and losses, the impression he has left on his some of his teammates will be telling.

Expect a big crowd to show up Sunday to wrap up one of the most controversial yet brilliant football careers.

A few weeks ago I pictured this game panning out like the Hawthorn v Geelong clash in Round 22 of 2006 with a young emerging side smashing a team that had faced much scrutiny all year for under achieving.

I could see Richmond doing that to Port Adelaide, but the Power have experienced a ressurection of their own in the past six weeks and will be keen to finish the year strongly.

However I still think this will be Richmond's day.

With a big crowd in support, some young kids playing with confidence and the incentive to send Ben Cousins off in style I think it will be a fitting end for the number 32.

Send him off in style they will, and win number seven will be forthcoming for Dimma's men.

Richmond by 28 points

Preview- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Round 22

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon - Etihad Stadium - Saturday Night

Western Bulldogs -4th - 13-8-124.82%
Essendon - 14th - 7-14 - 80.70%

Will this be the last time Matthew Knights coaches the Bombers? And are the Bulldogs done in 2010?

These two questions are the main focus points in another week both of these clubs would rather forget.

For Essendon, one last chance at pride presents itself this saturday night when they take on the Western Bulldogs whilst for the Dogs it is a chance to desperately find some form before a monumental assignment in week one of the finals.

Down at Windy Hill, scrutiny has once again been placed on Matthew Knights on the back of another dissapointing loss, this time to a Brisbane side that has struggled for most of the year.

Supporters have been hammering talkback radio calling for Knights head, and some extending that anger towards the board as well.

Say what you like about Essendon, the situation at present is probably untenable even if elements of the criticism are unfair.

Matthew Lloyd made the point in regards to defence in that to be a very good side you need to develop a strong defensive component to your game and sadly for the Bombers they have been unable to do so under Knights duration as coach.

In 2008 they conceeded more points then any other side, last year they conceeded the fifth most, and this season they are back to the most conceeded and this is an area you would want to see some improvement in.

Essendon conceed more inside fifties then anyone else, a higher percentage of marks once inside fifty then any one, the most effective disposals and the most points directly from stoppages.

This indicates that it probably isn't the fault of actual defence, but more a by product of the side's horrendous ability to apply pressure and restrict opposition ball carriers.

Too often teams get easy ball against Essendon and can execute under little pressure going forward.

The Bombers desperately need more clearance support for Jobe Watson who flies the flag in there, and it's pleasing that Mark McVeigh has signed on for a further two years to add some experience, even if he is likely to play out time in defence.

The question needs to be asked though, is it Knight's coaching? Or does he simply not have the cattle to execute a more defensive style of footy?

I think it is probably a combination of both but my main issue is the Bombers fans are destroying their own club due to a misguided sense of expectation.

Essendon fans through no fault of their own had been spoon fed success for nearly two and a half decades under Kevin Sheedy and there tends to be a total lack of tolerance to the work required in a rebuild.

Matthew Knights has been there three years. Some see that as long enough to turn them back into a force, but when you consider how appaling the list was when he took over surely people can cut him a degree of slack?

On the field the positives this year have been Carlisle, Hardingham, Gumbleton, Colyer, Melksham, Howlett, Hooker and probably Ryder.

Essendon's list has improved a lot in recent years and they should be optimistic going forward over the next few years whether Knights is coach or not.

Their opponents the Bulldogs have endured a week from hell with several big names succumbing to injury and a second straight belting on the eve of the finals.

Dale Morris and Adam Cooney will miss the remainder of the season, Brad Johnson could conceivably never play again and Shaun Higgins remains a source of frustration as he battles ongoing calf/illness issues.

On field they were trounced by the Swans and some key stat areas were particularly concerning.

The Bulldogs conceeded 104 more disposals and 82 more uncontested posessions to Sydney their worst differential in each stat for the entire season.

One of the strengths of Rodney Eade's men is their ability to win first posession at stoppages but in the past fortnight they have been destroyed in these areas and that's where their own lack of pressure can hurt them.

They rank last for tackles this season and have also caught opposition sides holding the ball just 61 times this season, the worst of any team in the comp.

If the Bulldogs are beaten in the clearances you can invaraibly say good night very quickly.

The good news is they play one of the worst stoppage teams in the league on Saturday night and it provides them with the chance for some much needed confidence leading into September.

It is nearly impossible to see this team winning a flag without Cooney and Morris plus possibly one or two others, but they do have some solid depth and they will carry a top four finish into September which always gives you a chance.

If they can somehow beat Collingwood in that first final, somehow, they will earn a week off, freshen a few blokes up and host a preliminary final and you just never know.

I strongly doubt they can still win the flag, and they may not have been able too anyway, but they aren't going to finish top four based on what they have done in the past fortnight, they will do it based on the previous six weeks of excellence.

Eagleton, Moles, Hill etc are going to have to step up and assume the responsibility left behind by these guys and it poses unwanted headaches for the coaching staff.

Rodney Eade will be aware of the fact Essendon got hold of them last time and the strange enigma with the Dons is that five of their seven wins have come against top eight teams this year which would suggest to you that they can play.

Consistency for both of these teams is probably the big issue, but the Bulldogs boast more depth and a greater spread of options at both ends of the ground.

In particular though it's ther numbers through the middle, even without Cooney that should have too much for the tired Bombers.

In what could be the end of the road for Knights, there will be no fairytale, and for the Bulldogs a bit of hope before it all really hots up!

Bulldogs by 27 points

Preview - Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Round 22

Adelaide vs St.Kilda - Aami Stadium - Saturday

Adelaide - 12th - 8-13 - 92.64%
St.Kilda - 3rd - 15-5-1 - 124.38%

Adelaide and St.Kilda will lock horns at the unusual time of 3:40 on a Saturday in what looms as an intriguing Round 22 Clash.

For St.Kilda, week one of the finals is confirmed and they will meet the Cats the following Saturday in an enormous game.

For Adelaide a trying and fascinating season will end with the club farewelling up to four of their finest servants.

Premiership stars Andrew Mcleod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards have all given it away this season, as has high flying forward Brett Burton and the sad part is due to injury, none of them will be given a farewell game. (With the exception of Edwards back in the middle of the year.)

However their presence will no doubt give all their teammates a massive lift as they close the book on a proud era for this wonderful club.

On field, despite an enormous injury list, the Crows have been very solid since that horrendous start.

Since Round 6 they are 8-7 in terms of Win - Loss, and have recaptured that dogged tenacity that was one of the cornerstones of Neil Craig's coaching.

Last week was a typical example, coming off a difficult assignment on a hot day in Brisbane they ran the might of Collingwood all the way to the line.

In recent weeks they have also defeated Geelong, and pushed the Western Bulldogs hard so they can certainly win this game given they have nothing to lose and the Saints have plenty.

St.Kilda will no doubt have a crack, they always do under Ross, but they are safe in the top four and you must subconsciously have an eye on the first week in September no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

Mackay, Jaensch, Henderson, Davis and a host of others have improved this side this year, and they were keen to make a statement to Nathan Bock and the footy world that they were very much ok going forward without their former star.

Their defensive zone set up last week was fantastic and simply gave Collingwood no run out of defence and restricted the way they went forward.

The Crows have lost the Inside fifty count in each of their last five games against St.Kilda, and 14 times this season, they have also laid on average 10 fewer taclkes then their opponent in each game.

Stats that don't look flash against St.Kilda, however they have been the best side in the comp for marks inside fifty per number of entries this year, and if they are precise going in, the Saints can be vulnerable.

For St.Kilda last week was a very open affair and a good hit out for the boys in what was a surprisingly free flowing game given the nature of the Saints style and the fact they have strangled Richmond on each of the last two occasions they met.

With no Jones or Hayes in the middle they had lost a bit of grunt and that was evident with the Tigers doing well as per normal around the stoppages.

Jack Riewoldt was isolated one on one and given the quick ball movement, and his undeniable class meant he was always a handful for Sam Fisher firstly and then Jason Blake.

Kurt Tippett has had a couple of good days against St.Kilda over the journey so the Crows will no doubt be trying to maximise his space.

With Hayes, Jones, Gardiner and Dawson all available for selection this week, St.Kilda will essentially only have Steven Baker missing from their best 22, and the nuggety defender will return in the first final the following week.

St.Kilda ranked second for disposal efficiency this year meaning they are lethal on the turnover, but also excellent at controlling the tempo by keeping posession.

This is also evident by the fact they only let sides play on from 35% of the marks they take ranked first in the competition.

Adelaide will need to be smart and pro-active as this year they have struggled against the sides that specialise in stifling run.

For the Saints it's largely all about injury preservation but at the same time you cannot flirt with form and no-one wants to enter the finals on a loss.

With Bock missing as a potential match up for Riewoldt you would expect Davis might get a go at it, with Rutten taking the slower, yet building Justin Koschitzke.

Johncock might get Milne with Schneider probably the difficult match up given his outstanding form and ability to push into the middle.

Blake will get Tippett, with Fisher possibly lining up on Henderson. James Gwilt seems the logical man for Taylor Walker given the size and mobility of the two is similar.

Clinton Jones will do the tagging role most likely on Scott Thompson who has been a star this year.

On to the result, and whilst Adelaide are certainly finishing strongly it has been an emotional few weeks for an essentially young group missing a stack of players and whilst they will be keen to send off their retiring stars, there is also potential for a let down.

St.Kilda are a touch vulnerable given the timing, but are also such a dogged determined group and I think they will still come to play.

I could see St.Kilda putting too much pressure on the young Crows runners and controlling the stoppages with some bigger bodies.

Should be tight, and dour but the Saints to make it sweet 16 and gear up for the mighty Cats!

St.Kilda by 11 points

Preview - Hawthorn vs Collingwood - Round 22

Hawthorn vs Collingwood - MCG- Saturday

Hawthorn - 7th - 11-9-1 - 111.07%
Collingwood - 1st - 17-3-1 - 144.49%

Saturday afternoon footy at the MCG will be the stage for another blockbuster clash this week with the desperate Hawks taking on the might of the rampaging Magpies.

For Hawthorn, it is in all likelihood a must win clash if they are to avoid a trip to Sydney or Perth in the first week of the finals whilst for Collingwood it is an opportunity to fend off a would be challenger, and fine tune their side for September.

Leigh Brown will miss the clash through suspension which has opened the door for Josh Fraser to play his long awaited 200th game.

It could also potentially be his last for the club as well, although if he played a blinder it would create an interesting dilemma for Mick Malthouse and his men.

Would they bring Leigh Brown straight back in if say Josh Fraser kicked four goals and had twenty five posessions?

Purely hypothetical, but would be an interesting conundrum just the same if it were to eventuate.

Paul Medhurst is also a potential inclusion with Allan Didak pulling up sore with a shoulder at training during the week, and a rest may be on the cards.

Last week the Magpies dodged a bullet against the Crows but in many ways the game had some positives.

Yes they again kicked poorly in front of goals, and Adelaide controlled the tempo of the game throughout, but despite that Collingwood still found a way to win, and it was simply through weight of numbers that they did so.

They kicked just six goals for the game, but generated so many chances and inside fifties that they eventually got over the top of them.

They will want to kick straighter, but few sides can stem the tide against them for long enough to get over the top.

Hawthorn with the exception of their Round 4 meeting this year have had the wood over the Pies with some thumping wins over them in recent seasons.

Franklin and Hodge have career best records against them and provided Hodge plays they will both draw a lot of attention.

For Hawthorn, last week was a difficult game to get a reading on. Yes Hawthorn were ruthless and slick, but they played less then a rabble with several big name Fremantle players out of the side.

However in saying that, you still have to get the job done and the likes of Rioli, Burgoyne, Ellis and co all found some ominous form.

Shaun Burgoyne in particular is such a smooth mover and too see him in full flight this close to September is a huge bonus.

If Hawthorn win, they need either Fremantle or Sydney to lose if they are to earn a home final in the first week.

If they lose they could play either Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney (the least prefered option) or Carlton at the MCG (probably the best option).

It has the potential to be a blockbuster no doubt, but there is a heck of a lot more on the line for the Hawks this week so you wonder what attitude Collingwood might take.

I would imagine they would go quite hard given you don't want to drop a game this close to September and they could meet the Hawks again in a couple of weeks if certain results go that way.

Lance Franklin will draw either Nathan Brown or Reid, but more then likely Brown given Reid probably won't return from injury.

Roughead would then get either O'Brien or Maxwell and this is an area Hawthorn could exploit.
With two first choice key backs unavailable, Hawthorn have the capabilities to stretch Collingwood with the two big guys up forward.

Rioli if he plays forward might get Toovey or Shaw, with the other likely to match up on Michael Osborne.

At the other end, Gilham should get Dawes and perhaps the exciting young Ben Stratton will play on Travis Cloke who is in dangerous form despite his kicking yips.

Dale Thomas in in career best form and is such an important player with his skill and smarts, and he could perhaps draw a lock down player.

Collingwood are the hardest team to tag with their heavy rotations but you simply must put some time into a couple of their midfield runners due to the number of options otherwise you will get overwhelmed.

This game will be a very tight affair, but with the exception of last week Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding.

Hawthorn will throw everything at them and will enter the game in solid form, but they just lack the defensive spread to counter all of Collingwood's options, and I could also see the Pies having a slight edge in midfield depth, maybe not class, but certainly the spread of options.

Expect a hard fought finals like affair, but in a possible pre-curser of things to come, Collingwood will take this one.

Collingwood by 8 points

Preview - Geelong vs Westcoast - Round 22

Geelong vs Westcoast - Skilled Stadium - Round 22

Geelong - 2nd - 16-5 - 147.25%
Westcoast - 16th - 4-17 - 77.93%

Skilled Stadium will play host to a game on Saturday afternoon where the only questions will be, how far Geelong? and will everyone get through unscathed?

The Eagles are at the finish line on a painful season, one in which they will take out the wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history.

For Geelong last week was another solid an impressive win over a side that has given them much trouble in the past couple of years and they will enter this game with close to a full list available.

Bomber Thompson indicated that Geelong would not be holding back at the selection table this week as they look to fine tune for a September assault they hope will net a third flag in four years.

Max Rooke is probably done and dusted now for season 2010, he did not play VFL last week which means he has not played at any level for over four months and as good as he is, you couldn't see them bringing him in blind for a september campaign given the depth they possess.

Ling, Lonergan, Ottens and Mackie should all return this week which creates dilemmas for the coaching staff as they determine just who should miss out.

Podsiadly and Hunt are the obvious ones given they copped suspensions, and maybe young Menzel could be stiff and get squeezed out along with Taylor Hunt.

Given the fact Podsiadly is out, you would expect Hawkins too get pushed forward, with Blake holding on to ruck duties with Brad Ottens.

Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel appear to have been a bit sore over the last five to six weeks but all of them continue to contribute and they will use this game as another chance to run some conditioning into their legs for finals.

In terms of the contest, their isn't much to analyse from a Geelong point of you, they have a clear edge in every single area and will canter to an easy win, it's all about that first final against the Saints.

For the Eagles, the last three weeks haven't been terrible, but they have come away without anything to show.

Two last minute defeats at the hands of the Lions and the Power confirmed they would win the spoon, and then last week they led the Kangaroos by a couple of goals early in the last term only to be overrun.

Sadly for them that is the classic sign of an ordinary side, the inability to run games out, and the tendency to get overtaken late in matches.

Mark LeCras is struggling for his best touch, he has four goals from his last three matches and will face a difficult assignment this week.

Callum Wilson came in and kicked four last week and he is the latest in what has been a revolving door through that Eagles forward line all season.

Ben McKinley must surely be playing elsewhere next year, most likely in Victoria I would suspect and Quinten Lynch is at the crossroads on a career that at times has promised much.

Natanui and Cox were ok last week and in all respects remain one of the more dangerous duos in the competition, but they just need a bit more inside presence in the middle of the ground.

Priddis, Embley etc provide a bit of experience, but the likes of Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood and co need to mature and collectively the group has to sharpen up.

They are the worst team in the competition by foot and they simply slaughter the football far too much in non pressure situations.

John Worsfold could potentially coach his last game this weekend as the scrutiny continues to build on the favourite son.

This game represents one last chance for some pride in season 2010, but sadly the task is monumentally tough.

Geelong often do just what they have to do in these games and cruise around and win by around eight goals, but I suspect this saturday they will be searching for a kill.

Much has been said about the Pies form over the past two months, and their opponents for week one of the finals St.Kilda are gathering a bit of steam as well so I think Geelong will be keen to deliver another savage message to the competition.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, everywhere you look, they are powerless to stop it.

Geelong by 77 points.

Preview- Fremantle vs Carlton - Round 22

Fremantle vs Carlton - Subiaco - Friday Night

Fremantle 6th - 12-9 - 103.75%
Carlton 8th - 11-10 - 108.78%

Undeniably the rounds biggest clash will take place this friday night when Fremantle host Carlton for the right to host a final in the first week of September.

Both of these sides are coming off defeats from Round 21 and for whoever loses, the following week becomes an extremely difficult assignment.

Fremantle rested up to ten big names and the end result was an embarrassing hiding at the hands of Hawthorn in Tasmania.

For Carlton, it was a dissapointing yet not horrendous performance against Geelong, but I was surprised how satisfied most were with the result.

Carlton had beaten the Cats twice in succession, both easily and whilst it was always going to be difficult, I'm surprised so many were proud of what was ultimately a hefty defeat with much at stake.

Some of the signs out of the game were pleasing with Lachie Henderson showing plenty, Robbie Warnock working well, Mitch Robinson providing a lot of life and Jarrod Waite strong and steady in attack.

However defensively was where a lot of the issues were. Geelong scored far too easily going forward with Podsiadly leading the way in attack.

The Blues are a bit like Essendon in many ways in that the gap between their best and worst can be substantial.

The barometer for this form gap is generally defensive pressure, much like it is with the Bombers who are famous for their tendency to get sliced open.

Carlton ran and linked up well all night, but produced just three tackles in the first quarter and only fourteen up until half time.

In that second quarter when Geelong started to win the stoppages, that lack of pressure was a telling factor with the Cats kicking six goals to one in twenty minutes to open the contest up.

Carlton fought hard in the third term, but were always up against it from there.

This week I'd suspect they would select Hampson and drop Jacobs due to Hampson's greater mobility on the wider ground against the returning Sandilands.

Carlton generally enjoy the space at the ground and should enjoy the freedom that the bigger surface will offer them.

For the Dockers last week was either a tactical triumph or a massive fail. Only time will be the judge of that one.

Fremantle entered Round 21 knowing they needed to win one of their last two games if they were to earn a home final in the first week.

Mark Harvey identified that many of his key players were feeling the pinch at the end of a long season and decided to rest them all, and put his eggs into one basket and roll the dice on a Round 22 assault on Carlton.

You can certainly understand his thinking, whilst a coach would never conceed defeat, given form and fitness they were probably unlikely to beat Hawthorn, and when you consider it's a six hour trip to Tasmania, spanning two flights and they would then have faced a six day break for this week's clash, you can see the logic.

It's a risk, and a massive roll of the dice, but I can totally understand why Harvey went down that path.

Part of the risk is Fremantle could make 13 changes which can certainly have a destabilising effect on a group, we have seen this happen in the past and Brett Ratten certainly alluded to it in his mid week presser.

Ratten questioned whether it was possible to flick a switch back on and find your form straight away and once again only time will be the judge of that.

Pavlich, Sandilands, Hill, Mundy and Hasleby are just five of the big names to return with the first two undoubtedly the most significant.

You would suspect Bower or Walker would get first crack at Pavlich if he plays forward, and maybe a Mitch Robinson could get a run with role if he plays through the middle.

The match promises to be entertaining with two highly attacking, fast and slick midfields who can struggle from time to time defensively.

But right at this point in time I think Carlton are travelling the better of the two sides, they are certainly the more settled and will relish the open space at Subiaco which is a ground they have played quite well on lately.

With Judd back on familiar soil I get the feeling he, Murphy, Gibbs, Carazzo, Simpson and the small forwards Garlett, Betts and more then likely Yarran will have too much class for a Dockers side who's season has gone pear shaped.

Freo took a risk, and in many ways I think it may work, as the boys should be fresher and sharper, and we need to remember this is a very good side when at their best.

But they haven't been at their best since about Round 12 and the Blues with the benefit of a little more experience will go a long way towards booking a home final.

Carlton by 15 points